On the last strong day of the field of the field, the Government celebrates purchases for US $ 500 million in the middle of the zero withholding scheme. However, gross reserves fell au $ S41.122 million after debt payments and economists alert that, once the extraordinary flow of agriculture has exhausted, the exchange pressure could intensify.
The market remains expectant to a last day in which agriculture would contribute, according to estimates, at least US $ 1,300 million. The attention is put on Tuesday as of that flow will absorb the treasuretaking advantage of the open opportunity window with the zero withholding scheme.
It is worth remembering that this Monday, the reserves fell US $ 116 million, although the treasure accumulated currencies through the “block purchases” or “block trades”. It happened because, simultaneously, the national public sector had to make several debt payments to international organizations. Indeed, official sources confirmed to the scope that U $ 334 million were paid during the day. In particular, obligations with the Paris Club, the IDB and the CAF, for US $ 116 million, US $ 65 million YU $ S97 million, respectively, stood out.
This effect, added to movements in the contributions, They prevented the US $ 500 million from bought this wheel (as confirmed from the Government) are reflected in an improvement in reserves. In gross terms, they yielded to U $ S41.122 million while, in net terms, the coffers of the monetary authority add up to approximately some US $ 7.4 billion.
In this context, the dollars remained demanded: the Blue dollar was $ 1,430 for sale, while the official dollar bounced in the wholesale segment to $ 1,360 and in the retailer at $ 1,380. It took place after the Central Bank (BCRA) I would reinstall exchange restrictions on Friday to stop a ruling between the officer and the financial ones. At the same time, the one with liquidation (CCL) and the MEP also operated upwards. In this sense, the CCL touched the $ 1,500. Despite the restrictions on cross operations, the market found a way to make financial ruling through another mechanism, which ended up becoming the central theme of the day.
Dollar Blue
The government celebrates, but there are “taste little”: does the exchange pressure return?
From the government they celebrate the treasure accumulating dollars, while taking pesos of the market, as happened in the last tender last week. In contrast, several economists, such as Gabriel Caamaño or amilicar collante, felt “Gust little” With the last intervention, considering the extraordinary contribution of the field.
It is worth remembering that at the end of last week the BCRA restored the Cross restriction that prevents people, to buy dollars at the official exchange rate, sell in financial for at least 90 days. In this way, the ruling party intends to cut with the “rulo” through which many individuals with high firepower were generating offer in the CCL with foreign exchange acquired in the official market, so that many companies (still ease) can cancel debt to a null gap.
“The objective is to reduce the pressure on the official exchange rate just in the final stretch of the liquidation of the dollars committed under the ‘zero retentions.’ In this way, the treasure would be allowed to capture as much as possible of the currencies that the agro is liquidating. The government decided to eliminate competition and ensure the flow at a critical moment“The PPI Stock Exchange Society said in a report.
On Friday this had been more clearly perceived, since the Treasury bought 77% of the “AGRODOLARS” offer. But this Monday the percentage fell considerably, as detailed above.
In this context, PPI warned that “When the extraordinary flow of dollars is exhausted, the perspective of exchange jump will grow, as already anticipated by the expansion of the gap (today at 10%)“.” The currency supply will be diluted, while the demand, far from disappearing, will be stronger than ever (due to import payments, cancellations of foreign currency loans, formation of external assets and arbitration against the blue dollar, among others), “the entity deepened, who sees a greater hardening of the stocks if the highest pressure on the dollar is confirmed.
Source: Ambito
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