Excess demand, new obstacles and elections in between: Can the dollar stay between the bands in October?

And that the increase would be damping by government intervention. According to City estimates, The treasure would have actively participated On Tuesday to lower the price of the $ 1,450 that had come to play, while this Wednesday would have sold between US $ 400 YU $ S450 million, being the only offeror in the market.

Thus, in the post of its objective of sustaining the exchange scheme, Luis Caputo is forced to quickly use the scarce currencies he had bought during the days of the record liquidation of agriculture. According to the estimates of the consultant balances, While the big cereals contributed about US $ 5,700 million to the Central Bank (BCRA), the treasure bought approximately 38% of this amount (US $ 2,175 million), a figure that had “pleasantly taste” for almost all analysts.

Devaluation expectations grow despite the insistence of the government with the bands

Within that framework, both people and companies and large investors demonstrate their growing devaluation expectations. To stop the pressure on the MLC, The Government decided to restore cross restrictionthat prevents him, to those who buy the officer, sell in the financial for 90 days.

However, this at the same time generates an increase in the gap. Indeed, The spred between the officer and the CCL climbed from 2.3% to 10.6% since the beginning of last week.

On the other hand, the search for coverage in “hard currency” is also being reflected in the future dollar contracts and in the appetite for the Linked dollar bonds. In the first case, The already “price” market for this month a exchange rate at $ 1,497, a value that exceeds the ceiling of the estimated band for that timewhich is around $ 1,490.

Regarding the Dollar Linkedthe market estimated important BCRA sales in the title that expires now in October (D31o5). “In a wheel where the exchange rate came very maker, the only tool that the central one has to contain the dollar in this context is the sale of this title, since via future has no margin of intervention (because the position sold is already close to the allowed cap),” he said Martín de la FuenteAdcap Research Analyst.

Even so, the specialist added that the portfolio possession of this letter by the monetary authority is already scarce, “so it is likely that in the next few days, if this dynamic is to be maintained, a advanced exchange to recompose possession in exchange for titles at a fixed rate“

The “price” market a higher dollar and claims reserves accumulation

This whole scenario shows that the possibilities that the dollar remains among the bands is increasingly difficult, while the type of help that the government will receive by the US is not clear. “There is no doubt that the market will test the upper band again, maybe even tomorrow“, forecast Nicolás Cappellaof IEB.

For its part, the consultant 1816 He pointed out in a report that “the market seems to be getting the idea that There is no other than having a higher exchange rateresulting from the government’s need to buy currencies to pay the debt. “

The Avizora entity a growing negative balance in the Treasury and BCRA coffers, given that the government does not show intentions to let the exchange rate float. “The great inconvenience of the current exchange rate regime is that There is gap, while there is free access for individuals in the MLC. There are not many background of this combination, which makes the incentives to demand spot“He warned.

On the residence of Donald Trump’s management, from the consultant CP They expressed that “it subtracts degrees of freedom on economic policy” since “after the elections, it will depend on what the IMF and the North American Treasury have.”

“The statements of renowned fund and international economists give clues about the future of economic policy in Argentina: a higher exchange rate and the priority for the accumulation of reservations“They said.

With a somewhat different look, Aldo Abramfrom Foundation Freedom and Progress, He associated the current uncertainty to “politics”. “I don’t know if it is resolved so easy with money,” he said, although he added that a swap could give some more support to the BCRA to remove the price of the band from the band’s roof.

Under this panorama, the meeting between President Javier Milei and his American Trump will be decisive for expectations, as well as the electoral result. Anyway, this reflects that The current exchange scheme is too fragile and that the cost of not having accumulated reservations is increasingly expensive.