Exchange tension: the official dollar rises again and the focus of the city is perched on the treasure intervention

So, The official dollar rises $ 2 and operates to $ 1,425 in the wholesale segmentwithin what market sources call as “the band band”, where the Treasure Sell ​​dollars to contain the price. It should be noted that this Thursday the ceiling of the flotation band is located at $ 1,481.70.

At a retail level, the dollar falls and operates at $ 1,400.11 for the purchase and $ 1,454.23 for sale in the average of the financial entities published by the BCRA. In it Nation Bank (BNA) The currency is achieved at $ 1,450. Thus, the Card or tourist dollarequivalent to the official retail dollar plus a surcharge of 30% deductible from the income tax, it was located to $ 1,885.

On the other hand, the financial ones take off from the official contributions; in that framework the CCL It remains stable at $ 1,572.89, while the MEP falls 0.4% to $ 1,517.24. He dollar Blue operates stable at $ 1,460 for saleaccording to a survey of Scope in the City caves.

The demand for dollar coverage intensifies not only through the purchase of dollarsbut through futures and a growth in the demand for dollar Linked, after agriculture liquidation left the treasure with less accumulated dollars than expected. Meanwhile, the Government is still commented on defending the exchange bands, even at the cost of losing the dollars that it managed to accumulate the previous days.

According to estimates by the consultant balances, while large cerealras contributed about US $ 5,700 million to the BCRA, The treasure bought approximately 38% of this amount (US $ 2,175 million), A figure that had “taste little” for almost all analysts.

Devaluation expectations grow despite the insistence of the government with the bands

Within that framework, both people and companies and large investors demonstrate their growing devaluation expectations. To stop the pressure on the MLC, The Government decided to restore cross restrictionthat prevents him, to those who buy the officer, sell in the financial for 90 days.

However, this at the same time generates an increase in the gap. Indeed, The spred between the officer and the CCL climbed from 2.3% to 10.6% since the beginning of last week.

On the other hand, the search for coverage in “hard currency” is also being reflected in the future dollar contracts and in the appetite for the Linked dollar bonds. In the first case, The already “price” market for this month a exchange rate at $ 1,497, a value that exceeds the ceiling of the estimated band for that timewhich is around $ 1,490.

Regarding the Dollar Linkedthe market estimated important BCRA sales in the title that expires now in October (D31o5). “In a wheel where the exchange rate came very maker, the only tool that the central one has to contain the dollar in this context is the sale of this title, since via future has no margin of intervention (because the position sold is already close to the allowed cap),” he said Martín de la FuenteResearch analyst ADCAP.

Even so, the specialist added that the portfolio possession of this letter by the monetary authority is already scarce, “so it is likely that in the next few days, if this dynamic is to be maintained, a advanced exchange to recompose possession in exchange for titles at a fixed rate“

The “price” market a higher dollar and claims reserves accumulation

This whole scenario shows that the possibilities that the dollar remains among the bands is increasingly difficult, while the type of help that the government will receive by the US is not clear. “There is no doubt that the market will test the upper band again, maybe even tomorrow“, forecast Nicolás Cappellaof IEB.

For its part, the consultant 1816 He pointed out in a report that “the market seems to be getting the idea that There is no other than having a higher exchange rateresulting from the government’s need to buy currencies to pay the debt. “

The Avizora entity a growing negative balance in the Treasury and BCRA coffers, given that the government does not show intentions to let the exchange rate float. “The great inconvenience of the current exchange rate regime is that There is gap, while there is free access for individuals in the MLC. There are not many background of this combination, which makes the incentives to demand spot“He warned.

Under this panorama, the meeting between the president Javier Milei and his American couple Donald Trump It will be decisive for expectations, as well as the electoral result. Anyway, this reflects that The current exchange scheme is too fragile and that the cost of not having accumulated reservations is increasingly expensive.