Dollar in voltage: The more stock and reservations, what do you anticipate the market in the countdown to 26-O?

Despite this, since Max Capital They considered that the “logical” decision would be to let the currency adjust under A free flotation schemeand for this use the US support. However, recent movements indicate that the government seems determined to reach the elections with an exchange rate that does not exceed current bands which implies at least two paths to specify it: the first is Continue losing currencies both by the Treasury and the BCRAand the second, continue hardening exchange restrictions. The third option would be to advance with both actions.

Leonardo Anzalonedirector of CEPECalso agreed that the best option is to completely release the price of the official dollar since it considered that “Both hardening the stocks and continuing to sell currencies are subopymal paths”because “economically and politically they wear out.” “The most reasonable thing would be to encourage to release the dollarunderstanding The impact on prices, accompany with a rise in rates that stops demand and take advantage of that to recompose reservations. It is the only way to give a clear sign of consistency, “he said.

For Claudio Capraulodirector of ANALYTICSbeyond the measure that is taken, any of them “can accelerate the demand for dollars, increase the exchange gap and generate the result opposed to the sought.” Now, he highlighted, All expectations are set at the October 14 meeting between Javier Milei and Donald Trumpand in the meantime, he said, The Government will try to support the scheme of bands as until now, mainly selling dollars. “The uncertainty is very large and it is not guaranteed that it is enough,” he said.

The options that the market can be summarized in three aspects:

1) Currency bleeding: how many dollars could lose the BCRA

Calculator in hand, from Max Capital, They already predicted how many currencies the government could lose the way to the October elections, if the scheme remains intact. “We believe that sales could be located between US $ 5,000 million YU $ S8,000 million draining reserves and aggravating the negative climate”they explained. They also project that the sale of futures continues to intervene in the exchange market, and The short position would be at least US $ 7,000 million.

For its part, from Delphos They anticipated that Maybe instead of thinking about October 26date on which the elections are celebrated, There is a key first instance that will be the new meeting in the US: “Most likely The dollar tests again the roof of the band and that the BCRA continues to defend it. There are 8 wheels for the October 14 meeting by Javier Milei with Donald Trump, and a confirmation of an agreement or the materialization of Besent’s comments could reassure a dynamic That, the less, it is worrisome. “

2) CEPO: Does the government think of hardening access to the dollar?

It should be noted that, gradually, The Government began to reinstate restrictive measures for the purchase/sale of currencies. Thus, it first limited arbitration between financial dollars and Mulc for companies and then expanded it to the entire public in general. “The ruling could be reintroduced A limit to purchases of individualsto limit arbitrations in the informal market, where individuals currently have incentives to sell dollars to take advantage A exchange gap greater than 10%“They anticipated from Max Capital.

However, They warned that other restrictions would have a high reputational costsince they could generate “Expectations of more future controls, for example in the face of the 2027 elections, which would make the equilibrium exchange rate higher in periods without restrictions”. This scenario would imply a coup on the political plane, particularly among voters of center -right and, in addition, would expand the exchange gap, towards levels of 30% to 40%given that The CCL dollar would be at a higher level than under a free exchange rate.

“The government is trying to cover the leaks between the financial market and the official dollar. When putting a roof to the officer, the gap is accentuated. The Government should not increase the restrictions forward, but new measures may arise if specific leaks are detected. The sale of currencies is given in a dynamic where the market is encouraged to the government, “he told Scope The economist Gustavo Gardey, co-founder of Bull Road Investments.

3) The government puts all the meat to the grill

Also in dialogue with this media, the economist Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina He assured that he believes that They will have to use all the tools available. “What I don’t think is happening is to raise the rate because it no longer makes sense to make ‘carry trade’ in so little time before the elections and everyone waiting for a change of the monetary exchange regime after the elections, but future dollar sale, incentives for the dollar Linked, more exchange restrictions, and sale of foreign exchange, I think they will use“The expert revealed.

“It is logical to think that in search of coverage in front of the elections the climate continues tense from now on,” Gardey said, who recalled that the government has maturities in a dollar letter at 28/10 for US $ 370 million officials payable in pesos and has contracts sold for futures for more than US $ 1.5 million to October. “Although the exit of this corrosive dynamic is economical, A bond repurchase plan would put an apartment in the contributions generating a country risk reduction And a reduction in financial volatility laying the foundations for a change of monetary regime, “he closed.