Before the elections, the treasure would have to renew almost $ 4 billion and then another $ 8 billion. Beyond the result, the City is covered in the face of the possibility of a new exchange regime.
The government will have to face in October Debt maturity in pesos for about $ 12 billion In the hands of private investors, a figure that imposes a challenge for the economic team in the middle of a complex electoral and financial context.
The first of the placements It will be October 15 and the second on 29. According to estimates from Banco Provincia, at that time $ 3.9 billion and $ 8.1 billion are renewed, respectively.
The tenders will be carried out in the previous and in the post -election, which raises similar scenarios in case the result is read as negative by the City.
Probably, of the balance of Minister Luis Caputo’s trip, Together with the president of the Central Bank, Santiago Bausili, to the US to see the secretary ofl Treasury, Scott Besent, Depend the type of supply that ends by launching the market.
In the City it is speculated that After October the government has to put aside the bands exchange to go to a flotation scheme with release from the remainder of the stocks. In that case, the exchange rate should be higher, and it would be foreseeable that Increase demand for exchange coverage.
Adcap pointed out in a report that “On Thursday, a new tweet from Besent’s secretariat indicated that the negotiations are moving forward and that they could Know more firm details about the meetings of the IMF – World Banco, possibly earlier next week. ”
“The publication promoted a brief rally, but the profits are They faded almost immediately. Did we return to the dynamics last week? Most likely, ”says the financial group.
The report shows that “in this context, bonds in pesos They look less and less attractive, since investors prepare for a possible regime change in the short term. ”In a context in which investors They will increase the demand for coverage, it is expected that the treasure will have a greater offer of dollars tied to inflation.
New exchange with the BCRA
On Thursday, meanwhile, the government went out to order the stage as usual when there are large maturities. Actually, October matches including holdings of the Central Bank and Anses reach $ 25 billion.
With a new exchange he gave him power of Fire to the central over the curve in pesos. After practically exhausting its stock of the Lelink D31o5 in portfolio, it was expected that the Central Bank will make another exchange that gives it the ability to action to contain the Dollar Linked Curves. Thus, the BCRA made A new exchange for US $ 7.3 billion. This would allow him to repeat the intervention maneuver that we observe from September 29 with the Lelink to October.
In detail, the instruments at a fixed rate with expiration towards the end of October (T17O5 and S31O5) were exchanged for the following dollar linked assets:
- D28N5, Lelink with expiration on November 28
- TZVD5, Linked dollar expiration on December 15, 2025
- D16E6, Lelink with expiration on January 16, 2026
- D30A6, Lelink with expiration on April 30, 2026
- TZV26, Linked dollar expiration on June 30, 2026
Source: Ambito
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