The trip of an Argentine delegation, led by Luis Caputotowards the USA Remarate the need to clarify the type of support that the current national management of its strategic American ally will receive. The way of Swap It seems to be located as the main alternative but, even with the expressions of symbolic support, the market persists the uncertainty about the lasting effects of this new support of the Trump administration.
“That it looks like a lifeguard is correct, but in Argentina the extraordinary support can be read in many ways. The desirable scenario is that this serves to generate more confidence, and thus attract capital and investment. But There is a risk that it is only as short -term financing, without solving the underlying problems. The key is that individuals and companies see reasons to bring money and bet on Argentina, “the economist analyzes Daniel Marx, Exitulating of the BCRA (1987-1988), former Secretary of Finance (1999-2001) and current executive director of Quantum Finance.
The specialist points out that “the important thing is that he gives the government time to run things. It is crucial that it goes from depending on the extraordinary financing to create conditions to access voluntary funds. The objective must be to leave the dependence circle and strengthen the foundations that reconquest investing trust. “ However, the stability of its positive impact is a question: “The country risk, measured by the Spread on the United States Treasury titles, was at the beginning of the year in 500-600 basic points, but these days exceeded 1,000 after electoral uncertainty and local volatility.”
So Marx asked that “The priority is not to trust that ‘the worst has happened’, but to act to potential the balance, reduce external vulnerability and guarantee predictability. Only in this way growth and stability will be sustainable. “” The level of exports with respect to GDP is low versus other countries, but it affects. International rates and spreads determine access and cost of funds. The answer is to reduce these vulnerabilities and advance anti -cyclical mechanisms and diversification, “he analyzed interviewed by Forbes.
Argentina’s dollars
Regarding the geopolitical situation that pushed loans, the economist understood that “continue expanding dependence with the IMF is not sustainable. Conditions must be built so that the support of the fund and salvages is not required, but rather the voluntary financing and the entry of genuine capital. “The greater that proportion, the more subordinates the private holders feel And they can put obstacles. Do not think only of future restructuring, but the sequence that allows catalyzing and attracting genuine capital, “he added.
“The DNA of the Fund has not changed too much: it continues to support exercises based on the fiscal situation, monetary programs and structural issues. What varied is access: today the multiples on the quota are higher than ever. Argentina has taken more debt than before. The relationship remains tied to fiscal results and institutional trust, not only to political promises, “he interpreted.
In addition, Marx indicated that “the use of the dollar as a refuge responds more to the history of distrust than to a real commercial bond. We must reverse the conditions that hinder stability instead of aspiring to dollarization that does not respond to our economic profile“.” The ideal exchange horizon would be an open and deep market, with few restrictions and low volatility. To get there, all the foundations and credibility must be strengthened both in the fiscal, the monetary and the institutional. Only then will the market work quiet and will be less vulnerable to shocks, “he concluded.
Caputo and Besent
Argentine delegation arrived in the US to meet with Scott Besent
The Argentine delegation – Led by the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo – He landed in the United States to close the details of the US Treasury aid. The meeting will take place after repeated support from the secretary Scott Besentwho ratified his support for the Argentine Economic Program, although he explained that the negotiations revolve around a Swap of coins.
Early last Thursday, the US official said he had “a very positive call with Minister Luis Caputo.” and said that I waited “Ansias” the arrival of the Argentine team to Washington To advance discussions about “the options to provide financial support.”
The meeting between the technical teams adds to the invitation extended by Donald Trump’s government to President Javier Milei to visit the White House and leaves open The possibility of financial aid arrives before October 27first Monday legislative elections.
Next to Caputo they traveled; The president of the BCRA, Santiago Bausili; The Vice Minister José Luis Daza and the Secretary of Finance, Pablo Quirno.
Source: Ambito
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