Electoral uncertainty and the fall in agro settlements maintain tension in the exchange market. Analysts foresee a regime’s recalibration after legislative, with administered flotation.
The uncertainty about the legislative elections of October 26 It promoted the demand for coverage assets, while the dollar remains highly demanded, touching the $ 1,500. Volatility responds both to the expectations of a change in monetary policy after elections and the weakness of the ruling in surveys, which revives doubts about the sustainability of the economic program and the current exchange scheme.
From the Central Bank, the looks are concentrated in the scheme of exchange bands in force since April 11, with an initial roof of $ 1,400 that rises 1% monthly and a $ 1,000 floor, which descends at the same rate. The formula, which acts as “anchor” for prices and devaluation expectations, Today it faces increasing market pressures.
The wholesale exchange rate came to touch the $ 1,482, exceeding the upper limit of the band, which forced new treasure interventions and the Central Bank. The Treasury is maintained in a selling stancewhich at the same time generates a greater risk for bond holders that consider that there will be enough dollars to cover the payments.
In September, the liquidations of the agro -export complex amounted to AU $ S7.107 million, a jump of 187% year -on -year, driven by the temporal elimination of retentions up to a cap of US $ 7,000 million. The program, which forced 90% of sales within three days, quickly sold out.
Of that total, the Treasury absorbed about US $ 200 million, lower than expected figure for the high fiscal cost of the measure. Now, analysts foresee that agriculture liquidations will fall substantially in the coming months, around 80% according to estimates of the Rosario Stock Exchange, to the fine summer harvest, a factor that could add pressure on the exchange rate.
What changes are expected in the exchange regime
The specialists agree that, after the elections, a “Recalibration” of the exchange rate regimeamong whose most likely variants are mentioned:
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Band elimination that anticipate the official intervention.
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Greater exchange flexibilitywith a possibly higher exchange rate.
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Reservoir recomposition through official purchases, instead of short -term indebtedness.
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Administered flotation (“dirty”)that gives greater margin to the BCRA to intervene according to the needs of the government.
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External financial support management (USA, IMF or multilateral organisms) While the country risk continues.
Country risk
How much operates the official dollar today, Monday, October 6
In the segment wholesalerwhich is the market reference, the dollar closed without changes, to $ 1,424.50.
How much the blue dollar is sold today, Monday, October 6
The blue dollar is sold at $ 1,440 For sale and the gap with the officer is 1.1%.
MEP value today, Monday, October 6
He MEP dollar operates a $ 1,498.81 and the gap with the official dollar is 5.2%.
CCL dollar value today, Monday, October 6
The dollar Counted with liquidation (CCL) quote a $ 1,525.88 and the gap with the official dollar is 7.1%.
Dollar price today, Monday, October 6
He Card or tourist dollarequivalent to the official retail dollar plus a surcharge of 30% deductible from the income tax, it is positioned in $ 1,885.
Crypto dollar price today, Monday, October 6
The crypto dollar or dollar Bitcoin quote a $ 1,505.18according to Bitso.
Bitcoin value today, Monday, October 6
Bitcointhe most popular cryptocurrency on the market, operates in the US $ 121,977according to Binance.
Source: Ambito
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