According to a report by the Invecq consultant, the National Treasury acquired less currencies than projected and, after a brief pause, He resumed the sale of dollars to contain the demand. At the same time, the producers expressed their discontent for the low real reach of the benefit. In this context, uncertainty is transferred to markets, with a decrease in diminishing currencies and increasing pressure on the exchange regime.
The Elimination of export rights (DEX) It was held by the agricultural sector as a positive step, although its impact was ephemeral. According to Invecq, cereals anticipated sales over their real grain availability, but the benefit for producers was limited, since the industry paid prices discounting withholdings.
Despite that, soy prices in the Rosario market showed an immediate reaction: they rose from $ 439,800 (US $ 298) on September 19 to $ 493,000 (US $ 364) on 23, reducing the gap with the international quotation of Chicago 21% to just 2%. After the restitution of the aliquots, the values partially retreated, although they maintained a low differential, of the order of 5%.
“The central objective of the measure was accumulate currencies to face the growing exchange pressure and Clear doubts about the ability to pay Of the next maturities, ”said Invecq. However, the results were Modestos: Agro liquidated US $ 6,100 million Between September 23 and October 1, while Treasury deposits They increased just US $1,157 millionafter canceling US $500 million with international organizations.
The effect was quickly diluted. In October, the Treasury He already sold currenciesand on the first day of the month he recorded a Fall of U $ S544 million In your deposits.
“The key point is now how the economic team will administer an exchange pressure that does not yieldwith a flow of dollars in setback and a sustained demand that could grow as the elections approach, ”warned the consultant.
According to Invecq, between 2003 and 2024 the OLEAGINOSE-CEREALERO COMPLEX liquidated on average US $6,600 million In the last quarter of the year, at constant prices. Part of that volume is He advanced during Septemberwhat implies lower income in the following months.
How much agriculture settlements can fall
The consultant LCG estimated that, after the peak of September sales, Liquidations could fall between US $ 300 YU $ S1 billion per month in November and December.
In parallel, the apparent private demand (companies and individuals with access to the official market) He doubled: average USD 540 million daily in Augustjumped au $ s1,050 million During the cumshot prior to the announcement of the US support, and then stabilized around AU $ S s770 million.
“Faced with the elections, with a offer that would return to levels prior to extraordinary liquidation (US $ 500 million daily) And a rising demand could missing around US $ 8.5 billion”, Warned invecq.
Although the government has a relevant mattress of reservations —U $ s18.5 billion In the BCRA as of September 23 YU $ S1,784 million In the treasure to October 1—, the consultant considers that “It does not seem reasonable to part with such a volume just to sustain this exchange rate level”.
In that context, Invecq concluded: “Some adjustment is inevitable. Since the chances that the economic team modifies the scheme before October 26 are low, the remaining alternatives are few: Transiently harden the restrictions either Wait for the United States to make part of the support ads.
Source: Ambito
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