In full electoral prelude, the government It seems determined to “burn cartridges” In a counterreloj race to ensure dollars. Although the Executive anticipated that he will communicate the official ads, the operators Treasury daily interventions follow carefully And any signal or tweet from the US Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Besent, who can improve the pessimism that flies over the screens.
By fourth consecutive wheel, The treasure operated again in the market Inside the exchange band to contain the wholesale dollar around $ 1,430. Unlike other occasions, it is the treasure – and not the central bank – who intervenes when the dollar approaches the ceiling of the flotation band, in a strategy that seeks to preserve reserves in a context of Strong demand for coverage. However, in case these funds are exhausted, the government would be forced to resort to BCRA reserves to contain the exchange rate, something that would feedback uncertainty.
In the last four days, with the almost total withdrawal of the agro -export sector, The Treasury would have already lost more than US $ 1,400 million of the US $ 2,228 million that it had bought under the zero withholding regimeaccording to operators of the exchange sector. If these figures are confirmed, it means that It detached from at least 60% of what was achieved under extraordinary liquidation.
“The price of the spot advanced only 0.4% to $ 1,430, a movement that continues to suggest the presence of the treasure, although this time defending a higher level. It is worth remembering that it remained stable for three consecutive days until Friday at $ 1,424.50,” they explained from PPI.
“The Treasury faces a serious operational limit: with less than US $ 1 billion available to intervene inside the band, The exchange margin was practically exhausted. At this point, The sustainability of the scheme depends on a strong external support signal “, express Leo Anzalonedirector of the Center for Political and Economic Studies (CEPEC), in dialogue with Scope.
According to the analyst, An American treasure assistance line could Provide short -term stabilityespecially if it is channeled by a bilateral agreement, but it would be a transitory relief. “The demand for financial dollars reflects distrust of the ability to maintain parity without positive net reserves. External support can moderate the pressure, but if it is not accompanied by an exchange correction and a consistent tax program, the market will quickly return to test the band’s roof,” he said.
In relation to the exchange rate a key element was the Survey of market expectations (REM) Posted on Monday: according to the main local consultants, in November the FX would exceed the current ceiling of the exchange bandanticipating a 7% average adjustment Until the end of the year.
“I fear that even the SWAP is announced, treasure deposits are not enough since the market already discounts a somewhat higher exchange rate than that of the upper band for November. Therefore, they may resort to BCRA sales, futures, dollar Linked and we will have to see what other resource comes out of government creativity. But yesterday we saw some optimism reflected in sovereign debt in foreign currency and yet to the treasure the market would have taken more than US $ 450 million in $ 1,430, “said the analyst Andrés Reschiniof F2 financial solutions.
The Carrera for dollars is given in a fragile political context and doubts about governance. The ruling party needs to increase its legislative force to retain control against any opposition attacks that go against the economic plan and advance with structural reforms. In that context, the market evaluates the risk and decides on the potential of the sovereign debt, before a scenario that is still open.
Source: Ambito
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