The dollar re -operates around $ 1,430, the same level that the treasure of Monday maintained the treasure. Meanwhile, the City analysts adjust their expectations and expect a correction of the exchange rate towards the end of the year.
The wholesale dollar operates at $ 1,430 for sale. On the screens, the official position is already seen at the same levels on Monday, $ 1,430, “new intrabanda roof” that seeks to fix the treasure. On Monday, the treasure would have sold other US $ 400 million, thus chaining its fourth day of interventions within the exchange bandwith the aim of containing the dollar at the current level.
Since the end of the extraordinary liquidation of agriculture due to zero withholdings, The government chose to be the treasure – not the Central Bank – who acts in the market when the currency approaches the ceiling of the flotation bandthus avoiding the direct use of reserves.
In the last four days, with the almost total withdrawal of the agro -export sector, The Treasury would have already lost US $ 1,350 million of the US $ 2,228 million achieved under the zero retentions regimeoperators of the exchange sector reported. If these figures are confirmed, it means that It detached from at least 60% of what was achieved under extraordinary liquidation.
“In line with these interventions, yesterday the gross reserves of the Central Bank fell US $ 70 million. However, if we take into account the positive valuation effect, explained by the rise in the price of gold, for about US $ 1550 million, There is a negative difference of US $ 220 million without explaining. This could be attributed both to variations in the lace of deposits in dollars and to sales of the Treasury or a combination of both factors, “they said from PPI.
Devaluation expectations were overheated, according to the REM of the BCRA
In turn, on Monday, the last survey of market expectations (REM) of the Central Bank corresponding to September, a report in which analysts They adjusted their nominal projections for the exchange rate. The median of the nominal exchange rate projections was $ 1,440 for the average of October of 2025.
The figure is almost identical to the current value of the currency ($ 1,430)Although it is worth clarifying that the BCRA survey was conducted in the last days of September, when the wholesale officer was still below $ 1,400. For the Top 10 of analysts, the expected average exchange rate for October is quite higher, of $ 1,471.
The greatest devaluation was projected for Novembermonth after the national legislative elections. For that month an increase of 4.1%is expected, which would take the price to the $ 1,500 area.
Source: Ambito
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