With less than US $ 700 million, the treasure faces its limit to intervene in the exchange market, while agriculture provides little and the coverage demand does not yield.
The treasure has less than US $ 700 million to intervene within the exchange band, according to the latest known information. If what remains to be liquidated from agriculture is taken into account after the elimination of withholdings, the available amount is reduced to Just U $ 460 million. In parallel, the Fire power in the futures market of the economic team around the U $ 2.3 billionaccording to private estimates.
For its part, if the Central Bank decides to intervene in the SUPERIOR BAND OF THE CANDIOUS SCHEMEstill have some U,13,000 millionfrom according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
According to consulting firm 1816, “If the government wishes to continue participating in the spot, it should soon start selling the BCRA (Or the treasure should buy dollars from the central: it has more than $ 12 billion deposited in pesos if you want to do currencies to sell in the spot and/or pay debt). The BCRA has much more back than the treasury to face a portfolio dollarization. “If we take into account, how many reserves the BCRA has, in net they would be around US $ 5,000 million.
Another of the alternatives that the economic team is using in recent days, especially since the last tender is to offer dollar Linked in the primary and secondary market To channel the dollar demand, however it was not enough.
LIVING FINANCE MARKETS ACTIONS INVERSIONES INVERSIONS DOLAR BONDS
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Devaluation expectations were overheated, according to the REM of the BCRA
In turn, on Monday, the last survey of market expectations (REM) of the Central Bank corresponding to September, a report in which analysts They adjusted their nominal projections for the exchange rate. The median of the nominal exchange rate projections was $ 1,440 for the average of October of 2025.
The figure is almost identical to the current value of the currency ($ 1,430)Although it is worth clarifying that the BCRA survey was conducted in the last days of September, when the wholesale officer was still below $ 1,400. For the Top 10 of analysts, the expected average exchange rate for October is quite higher, of $ 1,471.
The greatest devaluation was projected for Novembermonth after the national legislative elections. For that month an increase of 4.1%is expected, which would take the price to the $ 1,500 area.
Source: Ambito
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