Alert in the market: the Treasury runs out of dollars and rates rise, waiting for help from the US

The gross international reserves US$136 million fell to US$42,066 million. Official sources told Ámbito that there were debt payments of approximately US$35 million. He crypto dollaroperates this Thursday in advance of the start of the wheel, with a rise of 0.3%, reaching $1,550.

“The wholesale dollar closes at Treasury sales levels, in a day similar to the previous ones with many sales at these levels. US$669 million were traded”revealed a market source. In that framework, financial dollars fell slightly after Tuesday’s jump. The CCL “Told with Liqui” was quoted at $.1543.41 and the MEPat $1,527.95. For his part, the dollar blue rose $25 and sold for $1,475.

In the future dollar sectorthere were increases in the short stretches but a fall in the longer terms. Despite the intervention of the BCRA to provide coverage for the growing expectation of a change in the exchange rate scheme after the elections, The market already prices a wholesale exchange rate at $1,593 by the end of the year.

The rise in rates, another complication

In the context of exchange tensions and in the run-up to the national legislative elections, the rates in weights they turned to reheat. The operators maintain that it has been going on for several days lack of liquidity in the system and that this could repeat the extreme volatility seen in the departure of the LEFIs.

In fact, on Wednesday, the one-day surety rate reached a maximum of 45% TNA and the interbank REPO reached 57% TNA. They warn that if this situation continues, It is “likely” that corporate loan rates and fixed installments will rise again.

It should be noted that the Central Bank was putting a “floor” on interest rates in the BYMA simultaneous round, from where it absorbs pesos at 25% TNA (the level it reached after the elections in PBA in an attempt to lower the high yields that affected the system). However, this week, this reference began to be lost due to a renewed lack of liquidity in pesos, which was evident in the surety rate that exceeded 40% TNA, the interbank REPO that exceeded 50% TNA and the Lecaps that reached 48% TNA.

“The surety rate continues above what it had been operating and The only more or less convincing explanation for the increases has to do with the expectations of a rise in the dollar after the elections and the uncertainty regarding the continuity of the current scheme.“, they explained, on this day, from Outlierfrom where they also indicated that the rate increase “affected fixed income in pesos in general more strongly on Tuesday, probably because the aforementioned expectations are now fueled by sustained Treasury sales.”

Beyond the news that may emerge from the United States, the market assumes that dollarization demand will remain firm, regardless of the financial cushion that the Minister of Economy manages to build in Washington. This conviction is supported by the widespread perception that the exchange rate band scheme is already exhausted and that, sooner or later, a change in monetary policy will be necessary. This shift would imply a higher exchange rate, essential condition to accumulate the dollars that the economy needs.