Manager: —Are you sure they called Steve (Hanke)?
Lobbyist: —Yes, most certainly, in fact, I can tell you that he already visited, secretlytwice the White House.
Manager: —Ah, so, are you going for the dollarizationis that so?
Lobbyist: —They polled him to see options, and one of them is that, and he is one of those who knows the most about that, for a reason they nickname him “Money Doctor”. Maybe all you see now is a bridge to the elections and then we will see if it is enough to face such a patriotism.
Manager: —But he Background He doesn’t want to know anything about that.
Lobbyist: —If Trump wants, he leaveswhat is clear is that the republican administration will do everything possible not to let his friend Mileiwhich they will use as lighthouse for the rest of the neighbors. I tell you more, actually, the White House started ago two months to evaluate this scenario, but accelerated everything after the official setback in the Buenos Aires elections.
Manager: —When you refer to the white house domeIs it just the political wing?
Lobbyist: —No, in the first meeting there was a mix, but in the second people from the Treasure.
The synthesis of the dialogue between both New Yorkers, and Washingtonians by adoption, who commented a private banker to financiers summoned to its microcenter terrace was a balm for your skeptical expectations about the rescue but what hours later they reaffirmed their optimism after it was announced, ironically, that the Central Bank table had been moved to Washington after he Secretary Scott Bessent reported that there were “bought Argentine pesos” giving a strong proof of love about the willingness to rescue the ally Argentine president.
“You’ve never seen anything like it!” and the expectation for the large print (the girl will stay in Las Vegas)
“Nothing like it has ever been seen!”the diners recognized that they interpreted that now was the more or less smooth road until 26. Now they hope to know the large print of the rescue next 14 when Milei visits Trump in Washingtonif the situation in Gaza It does not force you to change your agenda. Of course everyone would pay to also know the small printbut that as usual paraphrasing the movie What happened in Las Vegaswill remain in vegas. It will be material for historians in the future or for some Bicameral. We will see.
For now, when in the operating tables they expected the fiery test would only come from the 27thonce the election results were known, the US Treasury played hard and has already started paying. It is known that this should stop the bleeding, see bonds and stocks bounce somethingand one less pressure on the exchange ratebut does not solve the underlying problems. It will be a bridge to something new maybethey understand the mesadineristas.
But until it is known How the ruling party emerges from the 26-O stoppage will continue doubts about how to get out of this mess now spiraled by the political and corruption scandals. Of course, now, after knowing the dialogue in the DC, the dollarization entered the menu of probable scenariosalthough at the local level They have almost discarded itbut, even so, in several virtual and in-person meetings between consultants and clients The option was put on the table, but with very low probability.
Global reaction: from soybeans to geopolitics
In the last hours the point to point between Buenos Aires and New York, and even Londonthey warmed up at the hands of the news spread by Bessent. It was undoubtedly a world newsfor the world of financial businessperformed by analysts and investors like him beginning of the US rescue of Argentinabeyond having confirmed a currency swap agreement for US$20 billion.
Some American operators proposed how the trump administration will “sell” to society this rescue to Argentinaabove all, the purchase of pesosunder the agenda of “USA first”not to mention the bad mood of American farmers for the recent topic soy.
What was heard a lot among those point-to-points was that a investment phase in the productive leveltied to some investment incentives in Argentina. It was also widely commented that the Bessent has confirmed the maintenance of the exchange bandsbut at this point in the “soirée” no one is scared.
everyone asks How will former President Macri play in all this mess?if your friend donald has promised him something in return, perhaps something close to FIFAor charge old debts to his former real estate partner. Because what is clear in the market is that keywords are political consensus and governance. They fear for him ransom commitment if these come into check.
The limits of bailout: politics, governance and trust
Among the participants there was a agricultural market expert and raised objections about the rescue because he considers that the geopolitical objectivesince Argentina is the last bastion of anti-Chinese sentiment in the regionwhich is mostly pro-Beijingabove the interests of the American farmers who were left without selling soybeans to the Chinese.
One of the most talented ladies on the market He went out to meet his foreign colleagues, pointing out to them that although the US rescue gives Milei timegreater exposure to official creditors No restores the confidence of private creditorswhich are further down the pecking orderat the time of payment.
It was spoken more about politics than economicswhich reflects that the main source of uncertainty It is not only the macro nor microbut the governance which everyone now monitors. And when it was already difficult to explain to outsiders the Libra-gatethe audios and the 3% Karinaappeared Espert case with possible links to the drug trafficking. All this plus Government self-errors lead to objections how will he come out of the elections.
Behind this is the issue of key structural reforms for the sustainability of the openness and liberal model that without broad political agreements lack viability.
Surveys, future dollar, foundations and yen
One of the operators who set up the “conference calls” explained that war from the operating table has two fronts: he politicalwhere the governability conditions the ability to implement policies; and the economicwhere the appetite for coverage remains strong.
Of course now we will have to see How the market reacts to the Bessent novelty. According to what your bank understands, after interviewing the best political scientistsit is clear that Without governance the economy loses its anchorage and without economic stability, politics lacks room for maneuver.. However, as a counterpoint European traderfamiliar with these pampas, opined that the elections of October 26 should not be overestimated but see if Milei adapted to the new political scenario. In this regard, an Argentine couple pointed out that the so-called Republican “nerds” They could tip the balance.
Little attention to surveyswhich in unison reflect the loss of confidence in the government and the social bad mood due to the economic situation and cases of corruption.
According to calculations in the bench table organizerthe BCRA sold position in futures would be around US$8,000 million. Very finfluencer’s tweet criticized saying that “They had been forced to turn off“, very irresponsible in these times of mass hysteriabecause the market counts as prisonersthe wheels that are missing until the elections.
On the other hand, it was well received apparent courtship between two titans of economic analysis of the country like the lady Mediterranean Foundation and the Redrado Capital Foundationnot only for technical exchange and the production of diagnoses but also for proposals for public and private decision-making.
There was also a lot of talk about yen. As explained by a London operatorthe call “Takaichi trade” weakens the japanese currency and tests the tensions of the age trump. Although the japanese markets They recovered and yen fell below 150 per dollar after the victory of Sanae Takaichiwere generated bets on a more flexible monetary policy under your agenda in the style of the “Abenomics”.
He pointed out that the Weakening yen boosts exportersbut it runs the risk of generating imported inflation and new criticism from the USgiven that trump accused Tokyo to “kill their currency.”
According to the Londoner, the consensus foresees that the yen fall is temporaryalthough one persistent weakness could strain trade relations between Washington and Tokyo and pressure the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates.
Source: Ambito
I am a 24-year-old writer and journalist who has been working in the news industry for the past two years. I write primarily about market news, so if you’re looking for insights into what’s going on in the stock market or economic indicators, you’ve come to the right place. I also dabble in writing articles on lifestyle trends and pop culture news.
