Next week the Government will carry out the last debt tender in pesos before the legislative elections, process that has become key for the domestic capital market. The second will be with the defined scenario.
This Monday the Ministry of Finance will inform the bonus menu that will be part of the first wheel with which he intends renew some $4 billion in private hands.
The context, at least The last round of operations is an increase in interest rates, because the sales of dollars, both from the National Treasury and the US Treasury, implied a withdrawal of pesos from circulation.
Although there is no official confirmation, market versions indicate that on Thursday the US Treasury would have purchased pesos for an amount greater than US$300 million. Be that as it may, there were fewer pesos in the market and rates rose.
The view of the market
IEB noted in its latest report that “by selling dollars the Treasury drained pesos and pushed the repo rate (65.82%) and the TAMAR (47%) hard.” According to IEB, the movement was abrupt: the guarantee went from 23% to 42% and the simultaneous BYMA guarantee went to 30%. “The money market becomes more demanding with less liquidity available,” IEB said.
In the same week, the President Javier Milei and his US counterpart, Donald Trump, will have a bilateral meeting in which the details of the aid package could be known, which for now only consists of a currency swap and a specific purchase of pesos from the Treasury.
More data on the agreement can help calm the impatience of the markets with Argentina, although several rounds are still pending and the pressure on the dollar may continue.
Doubts persist despite Scott Bessent
Meanwhile, doubts persist in the market about the continuity of the exchange band scheme, which many consider exhausted. However, Bessent defended it in his tweet on Thursday, ensuring that ‘they continue to fulfill their purpose.’
Thus, some analysts They maintain that by having been removing pesos from the market through the sale of dollars, the rollover needs are reduced and some liquidity could be released, lowering rates slightly. Banks, for their part, are going to need liquidity to complete the month-end reserve requirements.
It would be a possible scenario, accompanying the fact that the presence of the North American Treasury in the local dollar market can temper spirits and reduce anxiety.
This Monday, the Ministry of Finance will publish the bonus menu for the first call of the month. The Milei-Trump meeting will take place on Tuesday and the tender will be finalized on Wednesday.
Source: Ambito
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