The analysts consulted by the Central Bank (BCRA) in the Survey of Market Expectations (REM) They anticipated that the official exchange rate will advance above the ceiling of the current exchange rate band in the coming months, reflecting growing exchange rate pressure towards the end of the year and the beginning of 2026. After the “rescue” of the US, the doubt lies in whether the exchange rate bands will be sustained after the results.
According to the report, released in the last few hours, the average wholesale dollar would be located in $1,440 in October, $1,499 in November, $1,536 in December and $1,589 in January 2026.
These projections are located above the limits set by the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)which established ceilings of $1,496 for October – a value almost to be reached -, $1,509 for November and $1,526 for December.
The survey—prepared with the responses of 42 entitiesamong them 30 consultancies and research centers and 12 local and international banks— showed a general upward adjustment in dollar and inflation projections regarding the August survey.
In the financial market, all eyes are on the reaction of the exchange rate after the legislative elections. The movement of the exchange rate above the range foreseen by the program with the IMF became one of the main discrepancies between the official and private scenarios.
Econviews highlighted that “the swap would reinforce accounting reserves, providing an additional ‘cushion’ of dollars to face an eventual run“. In addition, they highlighted that “there could be additional funds for direct intervention in the exchange market (which were already used this Thursday), added to the possibility that the Treasury buys Argentine bonds. “A very positive combo for Argentina.”
“Something that caught our attention is that Bessent endorsed the exchange bands, although it leaves open the possibility that the ceiling could be different“said Econviews.
Meanwhile, the consultant LCG They argued that “since there will be a closer audit by the government and the IMF (audit that will be both economic and political, supervising the “coalition building” of local government), “It is still probable that after the elections the end of the exchange bands will occur.”
The objective, they explained, would be “go to a more flexible scheme and according to the external balance and the accumulation of reservessomething that the IMF has been asking for since the agreement signed in April.”
Persistent inflation and lower growth
The REM also reflected that the Monthly inflation will remain above 2% until the end of the yearwith a cumulative increase of 29.8% for all of 20251.6 points more than in the previous survey. The consultants estimated increases in 2.1% in September and October, 2% in November and 2.1% in Decemberwhile the decline towards levels below 2% would only arrive in the first quarter of 2026.
In terms of activity, analysts projected a GDP growth of 3.9% by 2025below the 5.4% estimated by the Ministry of Economy in the 2026 Budget project. By quarters, the report anticipates a contraction of 0.6% in the third, a slight recovery of 0.5% in the fourth and an expansion of 0.8% at the beginning of 2026.
Source: Ambito
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