Gold and silver once again set historical records driven by trade tension between the United States and China. Despite Donald Trump’s attempt to moderate his speech, global uncertainty keeps precious metals rising.
Gold appears unbeatable: this Monday, October 13, it rises again by more than 2.3% and is on the verge of conquering US$4,100 per ounce, a new historical maximum, demonstrating that Despite Donald Trump’s conciliatory tone with China, uncertainty remains high.
Meanwhile, like gold, silver prices rose 5% in early trading on Monday, reaching all-time highs. Silver futures in New York reached $49.63 per ounce.
Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the Silver prices continue to rise in the medium term, benefiting from the same private investment flows that are lifting gold amid the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts. “However, in the short term, we see greater volatility and downside risk than for gold, reflecting the smaller and less liquid silver market,” the analysts added.
Silver leasing rates, which represent the cost of borrowing physical silver, rose more than 35% according to market watchers. Investors are now paying record premiums to secure immediate access to the metal.
The high premiums highlight the shortage of silver bars available in London vaults, driven by growing speculative demand. In related precious metals markets, platinum futures rose 3.3% to $1,676.90 an ounce.
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Gold and silver, at historic highs due to Trum’s new tariff offensive
Gold and silver are going through one of their best moments. Both precious metals renewed their historical highs after Donald Trump’s latest attack on China: the US president threatened last Friday to raise tariffs up to 100% on products from the Asian country. Although he later moderated his speech—with some collaboration from Beijing—by assuring that “the situation is not so extreme,” the impact is already being felt in the markets and analysts reflect it in their projections.
Bank of America (BofA) today updated its forecasts for gold and silver, with both assets reaching their previous targets sooner than expected. The bank now estimates that gold could reach US$5,000 per ounce (with an average of 4,400), while silver would reach US$65 per ounce (average of 56) in 2026. Projections that they describe as “ambitious, but not impossible.”
According to BofA, for gold to advance to $6,000 per ounce, investors would have to increase their purchases by 28%. In that sense, acquisitions of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) grew by 880% year-on-year in Septembermarking a record of 14,000 million dollars. Furthermore, total investment in physical and financial gold doubled, now representing more than 5% of the global equity and fixed income markets.
The bank warns, however, that markets could enter a consolidation phase in the short term. Therefore, he recommends closely monitoring three key factors:
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The Supreme Court ruling on the tariffs promoted by Trump.
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A possible restrictive turn by the Federal Reserve if macroeconomic data improves.
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The results of the midterm legislative elections in the United States, which could condition the president’s ability to implement his economic agenda.
“Although the risks to the rally are increasing – repeating the 880% year-on-year growth in ETF purchases will not be easy – the fundamentals of the bull market are still present,” they emphasize from BofA. “Consequently, gold and silver may decline in the short term, but should return to an upward path next year,” they add.
Source: Ambito
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