In recent days, the different market exchange rates fell due to the intervention of the US Treasury. However, with less than two weeks left until national legislative elections, volatility remains. In this framework, savers ask themselves what to do with the dollar.
At the moment, The official dollar is traded at $1,375 at Banco Naciónwhile MEP and CCL dollars are traded between $1,410 and $1,440. In comparison, the ceiling of the exchange rate band, which was touched in mid-September, is around $1,487.
The dollar is going through a period of high volatility
Until before the intervention of the US Treasury, the expectation of a devaluation after the elections was practically a market consensus. However, the sale of dollars by the organization in charge of Scott Bessent, and the fact that he even opened an account to operate in the futures market, sparked concern. doubt about whether there will be a devaluation after October 26.
“In colloquial terms, few would want to ‘get in front’ with the Treasury of the country that owns the dollar printing machine. However, It is difficult to imagine that Washington’s assistance has as its main objective to delay the exchange rate. It is worth remembering that the International Monetary Fund asked the country to purchase reserves, which suggests that the current level of the exchange rate could be transitory,” explained the analyst and financial advisor. Mariano Monferini.
“In that sense, it would not be strange if in the months after the elections we see some adjustment of the official exchange rate. For investors, dollarizing at today’s prices ($1,400, approximately) could be a reasonable strategy if hedging is sought,” he added.
For its part, Pedro Moreyradirector of Guardian Capital, indicated that the Minister of Economy Luis Caputo ruled out dollarization, ratified the continuity of the band scheme and highlighted that the US will continue buying pesos, bonds and futures, supporting liquidity and business credit.
Therefore, “For conservative profiles, it may be advisable to take refuge in foreign currency and lower risk assets, such as corporates.
Aggressive strategy
However, More aggressive investors could choose to do the opposite. “Following the statements of Caputo and Bessent, they could sell dollars and position themselves in securities instruments.” fixed rate in pesosespecially those with an exchange rate break even above the upper band, which today start from the expiration of December 15,” said Moreyra.
Along these lines, Monferini commented that An intermediate alternative is CER bondswhich today offer returns of around 20% above expected inflation. “If the exchange rate does not move, its real rate continues to be attractive; and if a devaluation eventually occurs, these securities could capture part of the adjustment through internal prices,” he concluded.
Source: Ambito
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