The “swap effect” disappears and Argentine assets turn red: ADRs and bonds decline

The “swap effect” disappears and Argentine assets turn red: ADRs and bonds decline

October 20, 2025 – 11:51

Sovereign hard currency securities had already started in the red in the Wall Street premarket.

Despite a good initial reception for the Central Bank (BCRA) will report the signing of the expected agreement with the US Treasury to advance in a currency swap for up to US$20,000 million, the boards turned after a green opening and began to reflect a majority of reds among sovereign securities, on par with the previous days.

The Global bonds (which are governed by New York legislation), operate with widespread declines of up to 0.2%led by Global 2041. Among the Bonares (securities under Argentine law), the losses are greater and that of Bonar 2041 reaches 4.1%.

From the Puente Research team, they highlighted that the announcement of the swap “is more than symbolic”, since “the agreement prior to the elections is finalized and the doubts that it was conditional on its result are dispelled”.

However, pressure on the exchange rate is expected to remain throughout the week due to the demand for currency hedging, which will persist despite any exchange rate within the band and any level of interest rates until the elections.

In that context, the country risk remains around 1,000 basis points, after the latest data from the country risk (EMBI, prepared by JP Morgan) will show a value of 1,089 basis points as of last Friday the 20th.

ADRs and S&P Merval

On the variable income side, the ADRs they lose up to 4.2% of their hand Supervielle Groupfollowed by Pampa Energy (-3.2%) and Southern Gas Carrier (+3.1%). On the contrary, Telecom rises 0.3%.

For his part, the S&P Merval It fell 0.9% to 1,971,419.10 points, while its counterpart in dollars fell 1.4% to 1,270.74 points.

The papers operate with a majority of losses, the main falls are Edenor (-3.5%); Southern Gas Carrier (-2.3%) and Pampa Energy (-2.4%). On the contrary, Aluar earns 0.8%.


Source: Ambito

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