Goldman Sachs expects a rebound in raw materials due to the crisis between Russia and Ukraine, which according to the Wall Street bank reinforces its conviction that gold prices will continue to rise in the coming months.
Likewise, another interesting point to highlight is its ability to protect against inflation, since if we look at the 1980-2021 series, inflation in the US and the variation in the prices of future gold contracts have varied by 264% and 243%, respectively. granting a degree of long-term protection of approximately 92% (it should increase by 6/7% to close the aforementioned theoretical gap).
But gold is not the only metal on the rise. Aluminum prices headed for record highs on Tuesday as financial sanctions against Russia for invading Ukraine raised concerns about Rusal supplies, while nickel was buoyed by concerns about shipping disruptions. Benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was up 2.8% at $3,463. Prices for the metal, widely used in the shipping, packaging and construction industries, hit an all-time high of $3,525 a tonne on Monday.
“Of all the major industrial metals, aluminum appears to be the most exposed. Traders are already on alert, not least because of the experiences in 2018 when Rusal was sanctioned,” Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke said. The financial sanctions, which include a decision by Western allies to exclude “selected” Russian banks from the SWIFT payment system, could disrupt shipments of commodities such as aluminum and nickel from Russia.
Russian aluminum producer Rusal has halted production at the Nikolaev alumina refinery in Ukraine, citing logistical challenges in the Black Sea and surrounding area. “The key risk to the aluminum market is that the loss of this alumina supply will result in an eventual suspension of primary smelting capacity in Russia, with production of around 900,000 tonnes a year at risk,” Goldman analysts said. Sachs in a note.
“Smelters typically have up to a month’s inventory of alumina and other raw materials, so we would assume there is some leeway before metal supply adjustments occur.” Rusal is the world’s largest aluminum producer outside of China, accounting for about 6% of global supplies estimated by analysts at 70m tonnes this year.
Among other base metals, nickel was up 1.9% at $24,755 a tonne, after hitting an 11-year high at $25,705 last week. Copper rose 0.9% to $9,976 a tonne, zinc climbed 1.5% to $3,720, lead added 0.7% to $2,405 and tin rose 0. 9% to $45,645.
Source: Ambito
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