In the last 30 days, dollar deposits rose almost US$2.9 billion, according to official data from the Central Bank as of October 16. Despite the Government’s insistence on maintaining the current exchange rate regime, the market continues to act cautiously and seeks coverage in foreign currency.
The private deposits in dollars they reached their highest level in 24 yearssurpassing the US$35,000 milliona record that had not been recorded since the months prior to the fall of convertibility, at the beginning of 2002. The strong dollarization of portfolios It began after the uprising of stocks for savers in Aprilalthough the process accelerated strongly since Augustespecially after defeat of La Libertad Avanza (LLA) in the midterm elections province of Buenos Aires.
In the last 30 days, dollar deposits rose almost US$2.9 billion, reaching a threshold of US$35,133 million, while prior to the moment of bleaching in September of last year, they were at levels of US$18.5 billionaccording to official data from the Central Bank (BCRA).
The deposits in pesoswhich had reached a peak of $100 billionthey retreated to $91.1 billion as of October 16 -latest data available from the BCRA-, which implies a $9 billion drop in the period.
Quantum Finance mentions in its latest weekly report that the fall in demand for pesos generated, according to the monetary aggregate (M2), a decrease of 4.9% in real terms between August 6 and October 8.
The market ignores the tandem Luis Caputo-Scott Bessent and continues to dollarize. In that sense, Focus Market conducted a survey that shows that 68% of Argentines with savings capacity prefer to dollarize in the face of electoral uncertainty. “37% buy official, financial or informal dollars, 20% acquire Cedears and 11% invest in Common Investment Funds in dollars,” they specify.
He US Treasuryheaded by Scott Bessent, announced a currency swap for US$20,000 million and went out to defend the currency by buying pesos in the local market every day. This Wednesday, there is speculation that he intervened with some US$450 million, according to operators. With the support of donald trumpthe Government insists on maintaining the threshold of the bands and, in the last hours, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputostated that Sunday’s elections are “more important than the presidential elections of 2027”, because “the world is watching these elections.”
Along these lines, the economist Luis Arriazu He warned about the risk of a currency crisis if the ruling party obtains a bad result this Sunday. “If the elections go wrong, US aid ends and the dollar goes to any level”harshly pointed out one of the economists that the president listens to the most. Javier Milei.
In turn, Quantum Finance The preference for dollarizing portfolios stands out. Although, he emphasizes that “Unlike previous experiences in the country, on this occasion it is noted that the local financial sector, banks and the capital market, are being a channel for preserving the assets that are converted to that currency“.
Rafael Di Giornodirector of Proficio Investment, agreed that it is positive that dollars are maintained in the system. “People dollarize for coverage prior to the elections. Then we will see, depending on the result. It is not the same if Milei scores 32 points as if it scores 38 points. There people may be tempted to go back into pesos and make a rate in local currency,” he mentioned.
Source: Ambito
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