An eventual direct intervention by the US Treasury will be key in a day where uncertainty prevails among operators.
The official dollar rises this Friday in the last round before elections 2025in a context marked by uncertainty about the future of the economic program. The market’s focus once again rests on the exchange rate, which experienced weeks of strong pressure and which only last Thursday achieved a respite amid the intervention of the US Treasury.
The exchange rate advances $10 in the wholesale segment to $1,489, and is now only $3.5 from the ceiling of the float band, established at $1,492.5. Dollar contracts operate with general increases of up to 0.9%. The market “prices” that the wholesale exchange rate at the end of October will be $1,479, and that In December it will reach $1,580.
At the retail level, the dollar is trading at $1,459.70 for purchase and $1,513.93 for sale in the average of financial entities prepared by the Central Bank (BCRA). In it Banco Nación (BNA) remains stable and does so at $1,455 for purchase and $1,505 for sale. Thus, the dollar card or touristequivalent to the official retail dollar plus a 30% surcharge deductible from Income Tax, is located at $1,956.5.
On Thursday, market sources told Scope that, in view of the development of the wheel, alleged sales by the US Treasury were observed to contain the price of the currency at the close, although there was no intervention by the BCRA. Although not of the same magnitude as Wednesday, when Scott Bessent He spent almost US$500 million to contain the official exchange rate.
Among the parallels, the dollar blue drops $15 to $1,510 for saleaccording to a survey of Scope in the caves of the city. For his part, the MEP dollar rises 0.1% to $1,535.16 and the gap against the wholesaler is 3.1%. Meanwhile, the Dollar Cash with Settlement (CCL) rises 0.3% to $1,555.30with a spread of 4.5% compared to the official price.
Market caution and expectation for changes on the exchange front
From Max Capital they understand that The market “is being too cautious and discounts a victory for Peronism at the national level by around 4 points”but that the election “remains difficult to anticipate and the polls offer only an imprecise reference.”
For his part, the economist Gustavo Ber pointed out that The imbalance in the exchange market “is not sustainable over time, beyond foreign support”which is why operators long for a change towards “a freer system that makes it possible to quickly stop the drain of foreign currency, and even start buying reserves.”
Source: Ambito
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