The Argentine peso depreciated more than 30% against the dollar due to pre-electoral uncertainty

In the agency’s ranking, mcurrencies such as the Turkish lira, the Ethiopian birr and the Libyan dinar also showed significant losses, but none reached the level of devaluation of the Argentine peso. Near the region, other emerging currencies such as the Surinamese dollar, the Dominican peso and the Mongolian tugrik suffered declines, although smaller. Only 25 currencies, among the 145 analyzed, showed appreciation against the dollar in the same period.

The behavior of the peso reflects the volatility of the local market, influenced by the political and economic uncertainty in the run-up to the midterm elections. Analysts and investment banks point out that expectations about changes in economic orientation and electoral results played a central role in price dynamics.

In the stock market, the S&P Merval index, measured in pesos, remained close to 2 million points, while in dollars it recovered levels after the Buenos Aires legislative elections in September, although it is still 7% below the records prior to those elections.

Dollar: the three scenarios that the city manages for the currency after the 2025 elections

In response to the query of Scopethe economist Jorge Neyro predicted three scenariosdepending on the electoral result: one favorable for the Government, one neutral, and another adverse. The specialist sees that the breakup of the gangs is associated with a very adverse electoral scenario, while the continuity of the current regime is tied to the favorable scenario.

However, estimates that the most probable scenario is the intermediate one, in which the band scheme would be maintained, but with a recalibration; that is, “with a slightly higher floor and ceiling, and a slightly more aggressive fit.” “Floating would be positive, but I think that in the short term the Government will want to avoid the volatility that this would imply,” he said.

For Neyro, the new scheme must be compatible with the accumulation of reserves, one of the main requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)and with certainty regarding the most urgent debt maturities.

Days ago, the investment bank Morgan Stanley projected three possible scenarios for the dollar. First of all, if the Government obtains a solid result In the legislative elections (more than 35% of the votes), the financial institution perceives given conditions for a coordinated exchange float with the support of the US. In this context, the dollar would stabilize around $1,700 towards December.

Secondly, if the choice is even, with La Libertad Avanza obtaining between 30% and 35% of votesthe bank sees that the exchange rate could range between $1,800 and $2,000 by the end of the year. Finally, If the ruling party gets less than 30%, the dollar could exceed $2,000.

For his part, the economist Amilcar Collante sees the ruling party getting just over 30% of the votes, a scenario that would “probably lead to the removal of the exchange bands and a slightly freer float, with a certain margin for intervention.”. Even so, he believes that the transition can be progressive and not immediately the day after the election.

In the same sense, from the stock exchange company Balanz They consider that “the most likely scenario after the elections is one of flexibility in the exchange and monetary scheme.” “Perhaps the question now is whether the band scheme will be modified towards a greater extension of these over time or whether it will move towards a managed flotation regime.“, the entity noted, while highlighting “doubts about whether US support will continue whatever the electoral result.”