After the libertarian victory, analysts anticipate a calmer dollar and lower demand for coverage, but they warn that definitions for the medium term are still missing.
He crypto dollar sinks this Monday, October 27 and falls below $1,500to be located around $1,482in the first reaction of the market after the triumph of Javier Milei in the General Elections.
On Friday, the blue dollar had closed to $1,505 for purchase and $1,525 for salewhile the gap with the official exchange rate remained around 2.2%. For his part, the official retail dollar the week ended in $1,515 at Banco Nación. The resounding victory of Freedom Advances (LLA) feeds expectations of a greater exchange rate stability and a relief from the volatility that dominated the previous rounds. In the run-up to the formal opening of the market, the crypto dollar collapses more than 7%accompanying the initial financial optimism.
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A marked decline in the dollar and the continuity of the bands are expected: what will happen with the US intervention?
In this new context, the transition towards a greater float is practically ruled out, although some doubts remain regarding an adjustment in the values of the floor and ceiling of the bands.
“I see the exchange rate quite calm, with the dollar falling sharply at the beginning of the week, and probably trading between $1,300 and $1,350. In that sense, I believe that the demand for coverage will cease to exist and the US will not have to intervene anymore.“predicted in dialogue with Ámbito Federico Machadoeconomist at the Policy Observatory for the National Economy (OPEN).
“Going forward we will see what measures the economic team takes. I think they won’t release the bands. It would be good to lower reserve requirements and open the stocks to companies. If they buy reserves, the better,” he said.
For its part, Pablo Moldovandirector of the consulting firm CP, also projects that portfolio dollarization will moderate, and does not even rule out a reversal of the dynamic, with investors selling dollars in the market. However, he clarified to this medium that he still “new developments will be needed to give the scheme a medium-term perspective”. Regarding the role of the United States, he believes that support will be maintained, but “that direct intervention no longer has a reason for being“.
The financial analyst Christian Butler He pointed out that, although he does not consider that the current exchange rate is backward, what was needed was to find a balance between the supply and demand of foreign currency. On the demand side, he warns that, with the electoral result, “he should relax”although he warned that on the supply side “we have a problem going forward.”
“If the exchange rate falls, North American intervention has to end. The question is when the US is going to buy back its dollars and what will happen at that time“, he said in relation to the preponderant role that the US Treasury had in containing the pressures in the Free Exchange Market (MLC).
Source: Ambito
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