“The only solution (…) is to be able to meet these goals, taking into account that it comes from many years of recession and lack of job creation. In the event that Argentina can fulfill this agreement, it could be more attractive for investors. from abroad and thus be able to start capitalizing with genuine dollars and be able to structure large investments,” said Jorge Saenz, president of Patagon Energy and director of National Standard Finance.
“Entering a technical default would close the possibility of private investments and bilateral organizations in Argentina, a situation that would be unfortunate, taking into account the need for investments in the country, not being able to take advantage of the international macroeconomic context and the international value of crude oil, and Argentina being a great producer of commodities,” he added.
“In the current international context of high uncertainty, the key variable for capital movements to be expansive for the local economy is the degree of confidence that the agreement between our country and the IMF can generate“, affirmed the Mediterranean Foundation.
He added that “however, even when the Memorandum of Understanding is approved by Congress and by the IMF board, questions remain, since there are no planned structural reforms that address the medium-term problems of the economy (tax, pension, employment, openness of the economy).
The exchange landscape
“At the foreign exchange level, operators remain attentive to the post-agreement strategy with the IMF, which has already been giving signs through the acceleration of the ‘crawling-peg’, the rise in rates and the flexibilizations in the operation of public securities. “said Gustavo Ber, from Estudio Ber. “Financial dollars continue to go through a stage of limited ups and downs,” he estimated.
“There are reforms that are intended to improve economic growth and reforms that are intended to improve fiscal solvency. The government has not advanced on either of the two fronts.beyond the fact that a commitment has been made to reduce subsidies to electricity and gas rates,” said Daniel Artana, from the FIEL Foundation.
“Once the details of the agreement with the IMF are known, there are no doubts that it is light, but it will not be easy to comply with what was agreed“, said Roberto Geretto, of Fundcorp.
“The details of the agreement with the IMF plus the BCRA measures implementing the so-called “SIMI” (comprehensive import monitoring system), make it clear that the last alternative for the Government is an exchange rate jump, regardless of whether they have to adjust more the stocks to importers,” he added.
“The local stock market hinted at a recovery that was limited (by) the worsening of the global crisis and the doubts aroused by the technical agreement with the IMF,” said VatNet Research, noting that “The world situation has become so dangerous that it influences the spirits despite the distance from the main conflict.”
“We estimate that the rise in the international prices of commodities that has been evident in recent months will increase the level of our total exports, although the increase in the cost of energy and fuels will push the energy trade deficit upwards, offsetting such effect and yielding as a result a trade balance close to 12,000 million dollars,” said the consulting firm ABECEB.
Finally, the Association of Automotive Factories (ADEFA) said in a report that 2022 “is a positive start to the year in which we will continue to monitor the development of the activity in the coming months, taking into account that supply problems still persist. microprocessors and global logistical constraints”.
Source: Ambito
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