Finally, the “IMF factor” also contributed to the decline in financial dollars. The CCL cut 15% from its record of $231 since last January 28 when Alberto Fernández announced the understanding with the agency.
the official dollar
1. The competitiveness of the peso is preserved by keeping the real exchange rate unchanged (without exchange jumps) in relation to the levels at the end of January. For this, if inflation is 48%, the official dollar should be worth $145 by 2022. The currency rise should then average 2.8% per month for the rest of the year (39% annualized). Under this scenario, the rate of increase in the exchange rate should change slightly compared to that registered in February, which was 2.3% in the month (32% annualized) and was the highest measurement for almost a year.
two. If inflation rises to 55% (as forecast by the January REM), the official exchange rate should climb 48% in 2022 to reach $152. In this case, the dollar should increase 3.2% per month until reaching $152. In this case, the dollar would have to increase on average 3.2% per month or 46% annualized to meet the target.
Consequently, he estimated that “the rhythm of daily microdevaluations of the BCRA should continue to take temperature in the coming months.”
Scenarios for the CCL
The abrupt change in the financial exchange rate’s trend opens the question of what will happen to its value once the agreement with the IMF has been voted on in the Legislature. To try to answer this question, the GRA proposed three possible exchange rate gap scenarios by the end of 2022:
- Base: a light program is approved with the Fund, like the one that has been discussed. Argentina asks for some waivers (“forgiveness”) on the goals agreed upon during the year. In this situation, the spread with the official would cut up to 80%, which is the average figure for this stock without considering the last 4 months.
- Pessimistic: the new program is not approved by Congress and deteriorates expectations. In this case, the exchange rate gap would shoot up to 130%, the historical maximum registered in October 2020. In this context, the official dollar is expected to rise 41% in the year to reach $145.
In the work of GMA, there was also a scenario optimistic for the market: that the approved agreement contemplate structural reforms, something discarded in the project agreed upon by Argentina with the IMF. Under these assumptions, GMA estimated that the gap could be reduced to 60%.
How is the CCL film with these premises? Under the base scenario, the dollar would rise 30% in the year to reach $261. On the other hand, under the optimistic view -ruled out for the time being-, closing the gap would take the “cash with liquid” to $232 (+16% annual), while the pessimistic view would place it at $334 (+66%).
Although these values would exceed the nominal maximum of October 2020 ($182), in real terms the story is different. Because of the acceleration of the price level, that peak is equivalent to $316 at today’s prices. If the expected inflation for this year is considered, the level to be overcome updated to December 2022 would be $459″, GMA concluded.
Source: Ambito
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