“In just 69 days, the official dollar rose 5.9%, when in 365 days of the year 2021 it only rose 22.1%. Clearly the Central Bank is accelerating the rate of devaluation. I think we are going to be around 13 % per year, while the devaluation rate for the same period would be 8.3% We believe that the inflation rate in the USA could be 2.3% in the first quarter, this implies that, If we subtract the US inflation rate from the local inflation rate and compare it with the devaluation rate, we are losing competitiveness,” added the analyst.
In this framework, Di Stéfano assured that “a more rapid acceleration in the devaluation rate of the official dollar is expected, we believe that the devaluation rate would be at a value very close to the local inflation rate, minus the inflation rate of United States”.
The stock dollar, cheaper than the blue
“They are doing a game of tweezers to the stock dollar. On the one hand, more liquid reserves will arrive at the Central Bank, if all the dollars they expect enter, the price of the stock dollar could drop too low. We strictly follow our old rule. When the gap exceeds 100%, you have to change from dollars to goods while, when the gap drops below 80%, you have to buy Now, if it drops below 70%, you have to do it with more joy and that’s it, below 60 %, sweep all the dollars you can”, sentenced the economist.
In this sense, he advised “to start buying timidly. It can go down further because the government has been raising the monetary policy rate, which went from 38% to 42.5% per year, and which could soon raise it to 45.0% per year. This generates a scenario of illiquidity that would make the stock market dollar regress to a gap less than the current one Remember that the official dollar is rising at a rate of 3.5% per month as of March, the values expressed above constantly change upwards “.
What will happen to the blue dollar?
“It is a smaller market, with less volume and no transparency. It is a market that goes up fast and goes down slowly. Its price will slowly adjust to the value of the stock dollar. For now, those who have white money will have the privilege of buying at lower prices, which seems fine to me, they pay taxes for a reason,” he added.
Source: Ambito
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