The experts estimated that inflation should remain high this year, “with upward risks derived from energy prices and the limitations of world supply.”
“The Central Bank sticks to a managed exchange rate float,” the report said. In conclusion, the forecasts made ensure that the estimated devaluation for this year will be around 53.78%. A level higher than the projected inflation for the year, of 53.3%.
The consensus of economists by FocusEconomics ($158) is above the price that is being traded for the wholesale dollar in the Matba-Rofex futures market, which for December 2022 is $149.91.
When observing the specific projections for the official wholesale dollar of the different economists from banks and consultants, it is evident that there is still a great dispersion on the estimates, because the minimum forecast price is around $140 pesos and the maximum at $181.
The highest estimate for the wholesaler at the end of 2022 is held by Fitch Ratings at $181.05. Itaú Unibanco ($175) and the local consulting firm Econviews follow with a forecast of $174.67 pesos.
Back dollar?
The economist Sebastián Di Stéfano said that with an estimate of inflation around 60%, the dollar is backward. “We have an uncompetitive exchange rate, many economists talk about the competitiveness of our currency, we cannot export chicken, pork, flour, among other products, because we are not competitive abroad. We need to lower the Argentine cost or increase the official exchange rate, ”said the analyst in his latest report.
“In 26 months of government, inflation was 123.5%, the official dollar grew $179.4 and the blue dollar $267.5. The lack of competitiveness is linked to the enormous Argentine cost”
Source: Ambito
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