In the same vein, the dollar MEP -also valued with the Global 2030 bond- falls 15 cents to $195.12which brings the official spread below 78%.
However, compared to last Friday, the CCL shows an increase of $5.70 (3%) and the MEP shows an increase of $7.71 (4.1%). This occurs in a week in which it was known that inflation accelerated to 4.7% per month in February, its highest mark in 11 months.
The stock exchange rates had just collapsed more than $10 in the previous week due to several factors, such as the acceleration in the official devaluation rate, the BCRA rate hike and the appreciation of the real in Brazil, all within the framework of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which contributed to calm expectations.
The surprising jump in February prices puts upward pressure on all exchange rates, fundamentally from the official one, so that the country does not lose foreign exchange competitiveness. In this framework, it is also expected that the BCRA will increase interest rates again.
This will be known at the monetary policy meeting that the entity led by Miguel Pesce postponed for next Wednesday.
Currently, the effective annual rate (TEA) of Leliqs is 51.3%, while traditional fixed terms grant a return of 49.8%.
If inflation is between 38% and 48%, as projected by the Government and the IMF in the framework of the agreement, current yields would be positive in real terms.
However, according to the latest REM of the BCRA, the market estimated in February an annual inflation of 55% for 2022. Likewise, if the price increases of the first two months are annualized, inflation would result in 66%, a figure that would leave much relegated to savings instruments in pesos.
It is worth noting that this week the Ministry of Economy has already taken a first step in the direction of going towards a path of positive real rates, by validating a rise of between 1 and 1.5 percentage points in the TEA of fixed-rate bills ( Ledes), which closed above 57% in Wednesday’s auction.
“Operators expect a new rate hike by the BCRA, seeking to continue on the path towards the positive real returns agreed with the IMF and crucial to awaken a growing appetite for placements in local currency,” said economist Gustavo Ber.
“Beyond the upward rearrangement of the last wheels, after a contraction of 20% from the maximum that later activated a greater demand for cheapening, the carry-trade – with a preference for CER stocks – continues to be developed as a tactical bet, given that in the nominality race between the variables it should remain on the podium“, narrowed.
official dollar
In the official wholesale dollar this wheel climbed 19 cents to culminate in $109.70. In this way, it accumulated a weekly increase of 82 cents (0.8%), the highest since the last week of February 2021.
After cutting a streak of 11 days without currency sales on Thursday, the Central Bank had to part with another $19 million this Friday to supply the demand.
Even so, it registered its third consecutive week with a positive accumulated balance in net terms, and in the month it shows a favorable result close to US$500 million.
Dolar blue
The blue dollar operates stable this Friday, March 18, 2022, and it stands firm above $200according to a survey carried out by Ámbito in the Foreign Exchange Black Market.
The Casual Dollar It is trading at $202 for sale, so the gap with the wholesale dollar falls slightly to 84.1%.
Source: Ambito
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