In the same vein, the dollar MEP -also valued with the Global 2030 bond- fell 10 cents to $195.17which brought the official spread below 78%.
However, compared to last Friday, the CCL showed an increase of $5.47 (2.9%) and the MEP showed an increase of $7.76 (4.1%). This occurred in a week in which it was known that inflation accelerated to 4.7% per month in February, its highest mark in 11 months.
The stock exchange rates had just collapsed more than $10 in the previous week due to several factors, such as the acceleration in the official devaluation rate, the BCRA rate hike and the appreciation of the real in Brazil, all within the framework of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which contributed to calm expectations.
The surprising jump in February prices puts upward pressure on all exchange rates, fundamentally from the official one, so that the country does not lose foreign exchange competitiveness. In this framework, it is also expected that the BCRA will increase interest rates again.
This will be known at the monetary policy meeting that the entity led by Miguel Pesce postponed for next Wednesday.
Currently, the effective annual rate (TEA) of Leliqs is 51.3%, while traditional fixed terms grant a return of 49.8%.
If inflation is between 38% and 48%, as projected by the Government and the IMF in the framework of the agreement, current yields would be positive in real terms.
However, according to the latest REM of the BCRA, the market estimated in February an annual inflation of 55% for 2022. Likewise, if the price increases of the first two months are annualized, inflation would result in 66%, a figure that would leave much relegated to savings instruments in pesos.
It is worth noting that this week the Ministry of Economy has already taken a first step in the direction of going towards a path of positive real rates, by validating a rise of between 1 and 1.5 percentage points in the TEA of fixed-rate bills ( Ledes), which closed above 57% in Wednesday’s auction.
“Operators expect a new rate hike by the BCRA, seeking to continue on the path towards the positive real returns agreed with the IMF (the agreement was approved this Thursday in Congress and only the approval of the agency’s board remains) and crucial to awaken a growing appetite for placements in local currency,” said the economist Gustavo Ber.
“Beyond the upward rearrangement of the last wheels, after a contraction of 20% from the maximum that later activated a greater demand for cheapening, the carry-trade – with a preference for CER stocks – continues to be developed as a tactical bet, given that in the nominality race between the variables it should remain on the podium“, narrowed.
During the beginning of this Friday, the memorandum with the IMF was approved by the Senate and became law, so now only the endorsement of the board of the multilateral credit organization is missing, which is expected to be next Monday.
With the issue of the Fund closed, the Government will focus its greatest efforts on trying to reduce high inflation. President Alberto Fernández plans to announce a series of measures in this regard this afternoon.
official dollar
In the official wholesale dollar this wheel climbed 19 cents to culminate in $109.70. In this way, it accumulated a weekly increase of 82 cents (0.8%), the highest since the last week of February 2021. In annualized terms, the price is already advancing at a rate of around 50%.
“Higher inflation than expected by both the market and the BCRA, forces to increase the rates for placements and accelerate the periodic devaluation. Failure to do so takes us away from the goals with the IMF and increases the number of waivers to be requested in the quarterly reviews, something that the Government wants because there are disbursements tied to those reviews,” said Wise’s president in dialogue with Ámbito. Walter Morales.
“The end-to-end adjustment of the exchange rate is going to be equal to our inflation (IPC) minus 5/7 points. This gives us approximately 48%, as long as the ‘fight against inflation’ that the Government is going to face does not achieve positive results, something that the market does not believe can happen,” added the economist.
After cutting a streak of 11 days without currency sales on Thursday, the Central Bank had to part with another $19 million this Friday to supply the demand.
Even so, it registered its third consecutive week with a positive accumulated balance in net terms, and in the month it shows a favorable result close to US$500 million.
The Blue dollar rose 50 cents this Friday, March 18, 2022, and consolidated above $200according to a survey carried out by Ámbito in the Foreign Exchange Black Market.
The informal dollar closed at $202.50 for sale, for which the gap with the wholesale dollar ended at 84.6%.
In this way, during the week the parallel dollar recorded an increase of 50 cents, the second in a row.
Source: Ambito
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