Precisely since the CPI data for February was known last week, which marked a monthly 4.7%, above market expectations, both the CCL and the MEP began to rebound strongly, after touching a 2002 low of almost $187, even below the savings dollar.
Under this scenario, the dollar “counted with liquid” (CCL) -operated with the Global 2030 bond- climbed 0.2% to $201.91, for which the gap with the wholesale exchange rate is located in the 82.4%.
In turn, the MEP dollar or Stock Exchange -also valued with the Global 2030 bond- appreciated 0.4% to $200.57, which brings the spread with the official to 82%.
The monetary entity, which on the eve raised its reference rate by 200 basis points to 44.5% per year for a period of 28 days, does not rule out a further increase in the face of high inflation, a source told Reuters. This latest increase represents a annual effective rate (TEA) of 54.8%, compared to an estimated inflation among private analysts that could climb to between 55% and 60% in 2022. “A rate below inflation does not attract investors”said a banking agent.
Given which, the financial dollars continued to gradually recover ground “in the face of the ‘combo’ of greater demand after the strong accumulated contraction of 20% from the maximum, and an inflation that presses in the background from the nominal value, for which it is that they could have already tested a ´floor´”, commented a market operator.
At the same time, investors show doubts about the future of the local economy despite the recent agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to refinance a large debt, contracted by the macrista administration. The IMF board will meet this Friday to vote on the rescheduling of debt for about 45,000 million dollars recently endorsed by Congress.
“The new IMF agreement rests on shaky foundations and we doubt it will lead to a sustainable improvement in Argentina’s public debt dynamics,” estimated Capital Economics. He added that “this suggests the economic backdrop will remain challenging and default risks are likely to persist.
On the other hand, the country achieved on Tuesday a “time bridge” with the Paris Club to pay maturities for 2,000 million dollars.
In this framework, the Argentine country risk rose 23 units to 1,810 basis pointscompared to a historical maximum level of 1,991 units recorded at the beginning of the month.
In the global context, investors were still aware of the conflict in Ukraine and expected that the president of the United States, Joe Biden, would propose new sanctions against Russia.
The blue dollar operates stable at $201, after scoring two consecutive drops, according to a survey by Ámbito in the Black Market of Currencies. Thus, the gap with the official dollar stands at 82.6%.
The informal dollar comes from falling 50 cents on Monday and $1 on Tuesday, remaining very close to $200.
Last week, the parallel dollar posted an increase of 50 cents, the second in a row.
So far in March, the blue dollar is down $10, ending last month at $211.
official dollar
The savings dollar or solidarity dollar -retailer plus taxes- it increases 15 cents to $190.59 on average, and consolidates as the cheapest retail exchange rate in the market, due to the rebound of the CCL and MEP.
The dollar today -without taxes- rises nine cents to $115.51 this Wednesday, March 23, 2022, according to the average in the main banks of the financial system. In turn, the retail value of the currency at Banco Nación amounts to 50 cents to $115.50.
The Central Bank bought about US$6.5 million on Tuesday, after accumulating a string of 3 rounds in which it accumulated sales of US$100 million.
“Beginning next month and until August, the period of greatest liquidation of foreign currency in the agro-export sector will be concentrated. With the expectation of a sudden jump in the official exchange rate dissipating and considering the high prices of commodities, good income is expected, even despite the droughtestimated the settlement and clearing agent Neix.
Against this, andl Dollar Wholesale, directly regulated by the Central Bank, goes up 13 cents to $110.20.
Source: Ambito
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