Economists point out that the possible breach of the guidelines of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in your first review you could already change expectations. Another variable indicated is annual inflation: the government itself recognizes that it will be closer to 60% than the 40% to 50% expected. In principle, this scenario could inject pressure on the blue dollar as a mechanism already known by Argentines to protect themselves from inflation. The dollar in the short term can abandon its passivity to trend upwards.
“In our country it is always time to bet on the dollar and more so in times of so much economic uncertainty. Unfortunately, geopolitical tensions and the lack of a long-term economic plan make people turn to safer assets such as the dollar. The peso today does not fulfill one of its basic functions, which is the reserve of value, and it is logical that agents turn to the dollar. The blue dollar is going to exceed $300 by the end of the year,” he said. Natalia Motil, Economist of Libertad y Progreso consulted by Ambit.
The Economist Christian Butler, It also proposes other investment alternatives such as the MEP dollar or “stock market dollar” and placements in pesos adjusted by CER, which have become a good alternative after the inflation data that is expected to continue to rise during the first half.
“More than talking about the blue dollar, I would talk about the MEP dollar, which is much lower and it seems to me that it could become a buying opportunity. I see the floor of the alternative dollars in the range of $190-$200, it is clearly a buying opportunity. For investments in pesos you have a very attractive alternative for the next 45-60 days with placements with CER taking into account what was the inflation in February, what is expected for March. You have an interesting rate in pesos”, emphasized Buteler. This Wednesday, the MEP dollar is trading at $191, which makes it, together with the “counted with liquid” or CCL, the cheapest dollars on the market almost at parity with the solidarity dollar.
“Although it is true that alternative dollars are cheap or in the floor area, the reality is that whoever stays in pesos, covering himself with CER, also has an interesting option to analyze”he added.
In this sense, according to the Central Bank’s Monthly Monetary Report, UVA-adjustable time deposits recorded a monthly jump in their stock of 10.2% in nominal terms and 5.6% in real terms. In the first two months, UVA time deposits grew 8.4% real and 16.9% nominal, surpassing traditional deposits (4.6%) despite the rise in rates that failed to provide coverage in the face of escalating inflation. What makes them so attractive at this time is that every month they follow the level of inflation, protecting the money against price increases, although it must be taken into account that the minimum placement period is 90 days, which requires have money immobilized for three months. That will depend on the objectives of each investor and the confidence regarding the instrument for the coming months.
In short, for Motyl the dollar will continue to be the most used alternative in the face of an expectation of greater devaluation. A relevant figure from March confirms this possibility: the Central Bank already devalued 3% in March, above January and February, trying to get closer to the inflation rate to prevent the exchange rate from falling behind and generating movements in the exchange market again. . “Definitely, it is impossible to conceive of a scenario in which the increase in debt in pesos, the need to increase interest rates to make these instruments attractive, and the lack of confidence in the economy, do not generate a widening of the gap between the official dollar and the blue. It is very likely that as the debt in pesos grows, investors will ask for higher rates and turn to the dollar in the face of a possible devaluation because, as we know, all the debts in our country were liquefied in this way.Motyl concluded.
Source: Ambito
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