For his part, the MEP dollar or Stock Exchange -also valued with the Global 2030 bond- fell 0.5% to $189.68so the spread with the exchange rate directly regulated by the Central Bank (BCRA) also fell to 70.4%.
The CCL comes from plummeting 5% (-$9.92) in March and almost 20% (-$43.81) since the beginning of the understanding with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was announced at the end of January.
Analysts assure that the collapse of the so-called “cable” dollar occurs in the midst of income of funds from abroad to the country to take advantage of the rates of bonds in pesos tied to inflation (CER).
“The gap has been contracting from the continuous rebalancing of portfolios that activate the bets towards the ‘carry-trade,'” said the economist Gustavo Ber.
The BCRA’s change in strategy with rate hikes and an acceleration in the rate of devaluation, within the framework of the agreement with the IMF, are calming the foreign exchange market. With the signed agreement, the Central reinforced its reserves with something more than US$6,000 million, which was evidenced in the demand for foreign currency by private investors and importers.
For the second quarter, on the one hand, higher foreign exchange earnings are expected from the heavy harvest of soybeans and corn. However, there are also significant challenges to reduce the current high levels of inflation and meet the objectives set in dealing with the multilateral credit organization.
It is worth remembering that currently the expected inflation for 2022 is around 60%. Still behind are interest rates (around 55% in effective terms) and, even more so, the exchange rate (with an annualized growth rate of between 45% and 50%).
“We will continue to see moderate changes in the interest rate,” said Federico Furiase, director of Anker Latin America. “The BCRA also has to consider that every 100 basis points of increase in the monetary policy rate generates an additional cost in terms of interest payments on remunerated liabilities (fundamentally Leliqs) of 0.1 point of GDP per year,” he warned. he.
The dollar blue closed stable this Friday, April 1 2022, after trading low for much of the day, breaking through $200, according to a field survey in the Black Market of Currencies.
After crowning in March its biggest monthly fall since January 2021, the Parallel dollar ended unchanged at $200, reversing a partial decline of $1 that took it to $199.
With the slight increase in the wholesale dollar, the exchange gap fell to less than 80%, and hit the lowest level since July last year.
official dollar
In the official segment, the wholesale exchange rate began the month with a rise of 11 cents to settle at $111.12. The currency had just registered an increase of 3.3% ($3.56) in March, the highest since January 2021.
The acceleration of the “crawling peg” is taking hold, although the rate of adjustment is still behind monthly inflation that is expected to exceed 5% for March, and even behind fixed terms, which offer a monthly yield of 3.6%.
Sebastián Menescaldi, from the consulting firm Eco Go, estimated that with the inflationary numbers for March “we are probably going to have some more rate hikes in April. The Government is facing a dichotomy in which it has to choose between stifling activity and lowering inflation “, narrowed.
In this frame, the BCRA managed to cut its foreign currency selling streak and ended the first day of April with a positive balance of US$5 million from its intervention in the foreign exchange market.
In the last month, the monetary authority recorded a net purchase of US$275 million, despite the fact that in recent days the result has shrunk since the performance of the first quarter was considerably poorer than that of the same period last year.
For this month, a better situation is expected in terms of foreign exchange accumulation due to the liquidation of the harvest, something that can help maintain the current devaluation rate and avoid adding more “gasoline” to price increases at the local level.
For its part, the Savings dollar or Solidarity dollar -retail plus taxes- rose 32 cents to $192.46 on average.
Source: Ambito
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