With a little more slope, the MEP or Stock Market -also valued with the Global 2030 bond- fell 0.6%.
“Awaiting the inflation data for March next week, which is discounted would show an acceleration, operators are attentive to the higher rate that the BCRA has been deploying in the ‘crawling-peg’, and as a correlate of all this a possible new rise in the rate”, highlighted the economist Gustavo Ber.
He added that: “after deflating due to the appetite for ‘carry-trade’, the financial dollars seemed to have tested the level of $190, as a floor, since operators consider that it could be enough given the high ‘effect nominality'”.
The foreign exchange outlook is calm at the moment, based on the change in the monetary authority’s strategy in the midst of the agreement with the IMF, and the expectation of greater foreign currency inflows in the second quarter due to the heavy harvest.
“Investors are betting on the rate in pesos. That is, they disarm their positions in dollars and switch to pesos, looking for a rate, to later repurchase those dollars. The famous ‘carry trade,'” added Gonzalo Gaviña of Portfolio Persona Investments.
It is worth noting that, despite the adjustments made by the entity led by Miguel Pesce, both the “crawling peg” and the rates in pesos continue to trail inflation. Within a week, INDEC will release March inflation, which the private sector estimated at close to 6%, which fuels inflationary expectations of around 60% for all of 2022.
In this context, operators speculate that the monetary entity will raise its reference rate by at least another 150 basis points in April to a minimum range of 46% annual nominal, according to a recent survey by the Reuters agency.
official dollar
The The retail dollar -without taxes- rose $1.05 in the retail circuit this Friday, April 8, 2022, in line with the wholesale dollar, which rose $1.03, its biggest weekly correction since October.
On the wheel, the retail note advanced four cents to $117.69. according to the average in the main banks of the financial system. In turn, the retail value of the currency at Banco Nación it was sold for$117.25.
In a round with a more balanced development between genuine supply and demand, the Central Bank recorded a purchasing balance of US$1 million. In this way, the Central Bank chained four days without net sale of reserves.
The US currency traded slightly buying trend in another day with low trading volume. The evolution of prices was conditioned, as always, by official interventions that limited the fluctuation around the values admitted for today.
The lows were noted shortly after trading began at $112.12, fifteen cents above the previous end. The authorized demand was exerting a certain dominance in the development of operations, translated into staggered rises in the price that reached a maximum of $112.17, before the first official incursions in the sector where banks and companies operate. Demand remained active through the close of trading, settling values just shy of today’s highs.
In the week that just ended, the wholesale exchange rate accumulated a rise of $1.04, by far the highest weekly correction since the week ending October 2, 2020. “The rate of update of the prices of the dollar has accelerated notably and moves away from the previous weeks in which a certain moderation prevailed in the sliding of the values,” said the analyst Gustavo Quintana.
Trading volume remains below the daily average of the previous month, a circumstance that complicates the official objective of recovering reserves more quickly in the slow start of the marketing of the new harvest.
The The blue dollar recorded its first rise in 7 days this Friday, April 8, 2022, although, at the same time, it registered its largest weekly fall in a monthaccording to a survey carried out by Ámbito in the Foreign Exchange Black Market.
The informal dollar rebounded 50 cents to $196.50, from its lowest value in the year, before which it closed for the fifth consecutive day below $200. In this way, the exchange rate gap with the official wholesale dollar was 75.2%.
Throughout the week, the informal dollar accumulated a drop of $3.50, the third in a row.
Source: Ambito
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