“After deflating on the back of carry-trade appetite, financial dollars seemed to have tested the $190 level, as a floor, as traders would consider it might be enough given the high ‘nominality effect’deepened.
The dollar “counted on liquid” (CCL) – operated with the Global GD30 bond – rose 0.5% this Monday to settle at $190.97for which the spread with the wholesale exchange rate, which is regulated by the Central Bank (BCRA), grew slightly to 69.6%.
For its part, the MEP or Stock Exchange -also valued with the Global 2030- advanced just 0.1% to $191.31but the gap decreased to 69.9% as the official climbed to a greater extent.
Despite the slight upward rebounds, stock prices ended below the solidarity (the dollar that most retail savers can buy) for the ninth consecutive day.
In recent sessions, calm has been observed in alternative exchange rates to the official one. This occurs in a context of an acceleration in the official devaluation rate, which even so continues to run behind inflation and interest rates in pesos.
This Wednesday the INDEC will release the inflation data for March, which the private sector estimated at 55%, according to the latest Survey of Market Expectations (REM) carried out by the BCRA.
“Given a high inflation figure, the Central is expected to continue accelerating the rate of devaluation even more, and even increase the reference interest rate,” said Research for Trades.
Roberto Geretto, from Fundcorp, highlighted that “some estimates indicate that the CPI for March is close to 6%”, which would result in the highest quarterly inflation since 1991.
“There are many factors behind this bad number, such as the acceleration of the official dollar, monetary expansion and some occasional rises,” he added.
Faced with the acceleration in price increases, investments in bills and bonds in local currency that are adjusted for inflation are becoming more attractive, which favors the development of “carry trade” operations.
Market sources assured Ámbito that, within this framework, there is a significant inflow of dollars from “big” investment funds. This is reflected, they argued, in that the price of the dollar in the Stock Exchange that arises from bilateral negotiations (SENEBI) operates below the price on the screen (PPT).
“The market is going to pay attention to the inflation data to be released this week, where some estimates indicate that the CPI for March is close to 6%. If so, the inflation for the first quarter would be more than 15%, the most registered since 1991”, highlighted Roberto Geretto of Fundcorp.
“There are many factors behind this bad number, such as the acceleration of the official dollar, monetary expansion and some occasional rises,” he added.
official dollar
In the official exchange market, the wholesale dollar climbed 42 cents compared to last Friday, offsetting the weekend’s inactivity, to end the session at $112.58.
It is worth remembering that the BCRA has just validated the highest rate of weekly devaluation since October 2020. * “The BCRA accelerates, but fails to reinforce the level of purchases in the single and free exchange market,” said the StoneX brokerage, showing certain concern about the scant accumulation of reserves that the monetary authority has been achieving, at a time when more dollars usually come in for the heavy harvest of soybeans and corn.
The BCRA was able to end its intervention with a positive balance of US$7 millionfor which he accumulated five days in a row without currency sales, although a better result is expected for the remainder of the month.
The blue dollar fell this Monday, April 11, 2022, and touched its lowest value since October, according to a survey by Ámbito in the Black Market of Currencies.
The note fell $1.50 to $195, with which the gap with the official dollar fell to 73.2%.
On Friday, the informal dollar had risen for the first time in seven wheels, although throughout the past week it accumulated a drop of $3.50, the third in a row.
Source: Ambito
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