The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised down its forecasts for world oil demand due to the confinements arranged in various cities in China, and was optimistic about the possibility of avoiding a new escalation in the value of the barrel, according to its report. monthly published today.
The tightening of confinement measures in China in recent weeks in cities such as Shanghai, and, to a lesser extent, weaker demand in the countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), were the two main reasons. prompting the IEA to cut its demand estimates by 260,000 barrels per day, compared to its report last month.
Thus, Demand this year is now expected to total 99.4bn barrels a day, which is still an increase of 1.9bn from 2021.
During March, the month in which the international price of crude reached a maximum of US$130 due to the war in Ukraine, supply increased by 450,000 barrels per day to 99.1 billion and was led by the production of countries that are not part of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).
Despite the embargo and sanctions, and a consequent lower production in Russia, one of the main exporters in the world; the IEA was optimistic about the market outlook.
The agency forecasts a decline in Russian output of 1.5 billion barrels a day this month that would accelerate to 3 million from May, despite higher demand from some Asian buyers taking advantage of discounted Russian barrel prices.
However, “the lower expectations of demand, the increases in the production of OPEC members and other countries such as the United States, and the release of barrels of strategic reserves arranged by the members of the IEA”, should, according to the organization , “prevent the formation of a supply deficit and keep the market in equilibrium”.
It is precisely the release in the strategic reserves that the IEA itself established at the beginning of this month and that will total 240 million barrels over the next six months -the largest in history-, which, according to the organization, helped to reduce by almost US$10 a barrel of Brent to currently stand at around US$105.
Source: Ambito
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