The last time the currency had a higher rise than this Tuesday was on January 21, when it jumped $5.
Beyond this rebound, after the announcement of the agreement with the IMF at the end of January, the price of the blue fell sharply (it had touched $223.50 in the first month of the year), and For more than two weeks it has been trading below $200, reaching $195, its lowest value since last October.
In fact, so far in April, the blue dollar has fallen $2 (-1%) after ending March at $200. And so far this year, it has accumulated a fall of $10 (-4.8%), despite the fact that inflation in the same period is close to 20%.
Under this inflationary scenario and after reaching its lowest value in the year, a rebound in the parallel dollar was foreseeable, according to specialists, even more so considering that it operated for several days below the savings dollar, an unusual event, at times in which the Central Bank accelerated the devaluation of the official exchange rate, so as not to lose track of the inflationary escalation.
Now, what other causes are behind this strong rebound? Did the recent official announcement about the `new IFE` influence unregistered workers, and monotributistas of category A and B? And the government’s decision to discuss a mechanism for capturing part of the unexpected income from large companies, generated as a result of the war between Russia and Ukraine? Will it break above $200 again anytime soon? Next, the opinion of three specialists before the consultation of Ambit:
- Christian Buteler, financial analyst
“This Tuesday’s advance was a logical, normal movement of the market. Although a rise of three pesos may attract attention, the blue had been falling a lot in recent weeks. In fact, so far this year it has fallen, compared to to an inflation above 16% It is not logical that this happens, at some point it has to rebound, but it does not seem to me that it is attributable to the official announcement on Monday about social aid, as some believe in the market.
Although the blue is a markup that is not as transparent as the dollar with liquidation and the MEP, this Tuesday the financial exchange rates were also rising, with which it does not seem correct to link the rise in the blue with the announcements of the Government.
A stable blue dollar, with inflation like the current one, is not sustainable over time, and based on that, at some point it had to rebound. But this does not mean that this Wednesday continues to rise another three pesos, far from it.
The one on Tuesday was simply a logical movement of the market, which is never linear, it makes saws, finds its ceiling or its floor, and begins to correct based on that.”
“As happened with the financial dollars, the concerns aroused by a possible greater monetary issue from the latest economic announcements from the Government caused a reaction in the blue dollar.
In any case, I don’t think for now that the parallel and the financial dollars will go back above $200, since if the appetite for the “carry-trade” continues, they should lateralize, although nominality will push them up over time.
For now, we see that the greatest supply is evident among financial dollars, due to rebalancing in favor of the “carry-trade”.
- Frederick Glustein, economist
“There is an awakening of the blue dollar for several reasons: as a consequence of the rise in the official dollar at a higher rate of devaluation at 4% per month, which placed the solidarity dollar at $195.50, surpassing the price of the parallel, for what is manifested in greater demand, anticipating the beginning of the month where there is a greater appetite for solidarity.
Another cause of the rebound is the new tax announced by the Government, which affects a particular sector, but which generates uncertainty about other future new taxes, especially for the middle class, so that resources are directed towards dollarization.
On the other hand, the granting of the bond to sectors with fewer resources clearly shows an advance in the monetary issue and, therefore, a lower value of the pesos clearly translates into a demand for foreign currency as a precaution.
Economic uncertainty and negative expectations, in general, move the blue upwards. This is no exception, and more uploads are likely to be seen in the coming days.”
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
