According to Nadin Arganarazdirector of the Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (IARAF), These new transfers would imply an extra expense of between $176,000 million and $235,000 million, equivalent to between 0.25% and 0.33% of the GDP estimated for this year.
For the economist Gustavo Ber, the economic announcements woke up the financial dollars, based on coverage after the recent retraction and a possible greater monetary issue, but Even so, it would still seem that the ‘carry-trade’ would continue to be in control, so the movement of said references should be limited for now.
On Monday, the Government announced a bonus of $18,000 for informal workers, private households, and monotax workers, and another of $12,000 for retirees (which is added to the previous bonus of $6,000), with the aim of cushioning the impact of the inflationary jump on income. .
The financing of said monetary aid could be through indebtedness in pesos with the market, or through a tax on “unexpected income” as the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, intends.
The official insisted before G20 officials on the need to redistribute the extraordinary profits that some sectors had as a result of the effects of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
However, if it fails to raise funds through these two channels, the Treasury should resort to a greater monetary issue from the BCRA, putting in check the goals agreed with the IMF and putting pressure on key macroeconomic variables such as the dollar and inflation.
The opinions before the announcement
For market analysts like Goldman Sachs “there is still a significant amount of pent-up inflation in the system due to widespread currency controls, price controls, export controls and public tariffs significantly below cost.”
The AMC consultancy also referred to what will happen in April and May: “We can expect the price variation to be less than that observed in the month (March), although there is an important component of expectations that may mean that this does not imply such an important change. In another sense, the fulfillment of the different objectives of the agreement with the IMF will represent a relevant factor for long-term stabilization”.
Source: Ambito
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