Meanwhile, the MEP o The stock market -also valued with the Global 2030- rose 2.1% ($4.30) to $208.27, for which the exchange gap increased to 82.3%.
In the weekly accumulated, the CCL grew 9.6% ($18.26) and the MEP climbed 8.9% ($16.94). It is worth remembering that between the end of January and the beginning of this month, prices had dropped by more than $40. During this period, many investors took the opportunity to carry out “carry trades” taking advantage of the high yields of bonds tied to inflation and the lowering of the “greenback”.
Nevertheless, “in just three days the ‘carry’ was erased two months for an investor who was making a rate in pesos with a fixed term adjustable by the Badlar rate or just over a month for an investor positioned in the short section of the CER (inflation) curve,” according to Portfolio Personal Inversiones.
The rebounds occurred in a scenario in which retail prices grew 6.7% in March and a floor of at least 5% is expected in April, with a projection towards a minimum of 60% by 2022 according to consultants private.
At the same time, the Executive Branch announced a new monetary aid for those sectors hardest hit by inflation, whose financing is still an unknown since it could be given through indebtedness in pesos with the market, through a tax on “unexpected income” as intended the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, or with the largest monetary issue, this last channel being the one that most worries the market.
In this context, this week it was known that the fiscal deficit for the first quarter reached some $192.7 billion (0.27% of GDP). Although the goal agreed with the IMF was overachieved, some analysts warned that this was fundamentally due to the way in which the difference between the effective value raised by debt issues in pesos and the nominal value of what was placed was accounted for.
From Investing in the Stock Market they estimate that the rate of devaluation will continue between 3.5% and 4% per month, for which they consider “that a rise in the gap will be explained by the CCL side.”
“You are seeing a market sensitive to recent political news driving the current CCL rebound. In turn, as agriculture sells off its crop and the opportunity cost of not carrying trades declines, we believe the CCL will continue to gain strength. as seen last year converging with the reference value of our benchmark or even to a higher level Although we imagine that the CCL will drive the gap up, we see it as difficult for it to reach levels of 123% as in January 2022 (pre agreement with the IMF),” the entity said.
official dollar
In the official segment, the wholesale dollar rose 14 cents to $114.23. In this way, the BCRA validated its largest weekly devaluation since October 2020 ($1.26 or 1.1%). So far this month, with one business week to go, the currency has already climbed almost 3%.
The monetary authority ended its participation today with purchases for almost US$15 millionin the week it accumulated US$152 million and in the month it is in the order of US$174 million, always in net terms.
For its part, the retail dollar -without taxes- increased 11 cents to $119.69, according to the average in the main banks of the financial system. In turn, the retail value of the bill at Banco Nación increased 25 cents to $119.
The solidarity dollar -which includes 30% of the PAÍS tax and 35% deductible from profits- grew 18 cents to $197.49 on average.
The blue dollar woke up abruptly and rose in just four days $8to crown its biggest weekly rise in three months, according to a survey by Ámbito in the Black Market of Currencies.
The informal dollar rose $1 this Friday up to $203and reached a nominal maximum of more than a month, with which the gap with the official price widened to 77.7%.
During the week, the parallel dollar accumulated a rise of $8, the highest since January.
Source: Ambito
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