For Ecolatina, “the external front definitely looks more challenging than a few months ago. The consequences of the war in Ukraine are not perceived as transitory as at first. The global economic slowdown presents a risk for the region and for Argentina in particular, mitigating the favorable impact of the rise in the prices of our exports”.
“It is celebrated if April inflation is tenths below 6%. We already see how worrying it can be. It is a very worrying scenario because the Government would aspire in April to say at least that it dropped back to 4.5%, which is just as bad,” Fabio Rodríguez, of M&R Asociados, added in radio statements. “The agreement with the Fund is intrinsically it did not have an anti-inflationary component. That component was underestimated and now we’re all talking about it,” he added.
Delphos Investment added: “The data (…) show a situation characterized by a level of activity close to recent highs, an inflationary rhythm above 60% and a shortage of dollars derived from the demand for foreign currency for imports, services and other payments that do not allow to accumulate reserves in a forceful way even with the high international prices”.
“In this scheme, a stabilization plan that allows continued growth without sacrificing the level of activity becomes more necessary. However, its implementation requires much greater political leadership than is currently shown by the ruling coalition.”estimated.
A report from the Center for Studies of the Argentine Industrial Union showed that activity in February registered a monthly rise of 5.4% and a year-on-year rise of 10.8%. Of the twelve sectors that make up the CEU IPI, ten recorded year-on-year increases.
“Until recently, investors preferred to focus on post-2023, and thus tried a recovery in ADRs and bonds, betting on a friendlier climate that improves expectations after the key presidential elections. However,the deepening of caution and volatility from the external front is negatively influencing the appetite for global risk, and thus rebalancing towards defensive positions is growing“, concluded economist Gustavo Ber.
Source: Ambito
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