While, the MEP -also valued with the Global 2030- decreases 0.2% to $207.81so the exchange rate gap falls to 81.2%.
It is worth remembering that last week stock exchange rates accumulated rebounds of up to $18 (9%), and they recovered part of the more than $40 they had lost between the end of January (when the government announced the beginning of an understanding with the IMF) and the beginning of April.
Thus, “carry trade” operations (which consisted of taking advantage of the yields on securities in pesos, fundamentally those indexed to inflation, in order to later buy cheaper dollars) seem to have lost their appeal.
For its part, Adcap Financial Group recommended in dialogue with Ámbito to close the trade, fundamentally due to the fragility of the BCRA in terms of foreign exchange accumulation, in the middle of the soybean and corn harvest season.
“From Adcap we had recommended entering the carry trade at the beginning of March, but already at the beginning of April and after a reduction in the gap from 87% to 70%, a growing fragility began to be seen, due to the latent threat of increases in the retentions to the field. This last week, this fragility continued to grow due to the concerns generated by the inability to accumulate reserves on the part of the BCRA, even when there are record liquidations of agriculture, “they deepened.
The scant accumulation of reserves by the monetary authority is added to the pressure of inflation on the nominal value of the exchange rate and doubts about meeting the goals with the IMF as factors that explain the change in trend of the “greenback”.
For his part, the Ecolatina analyst, John Paul Albornozbegged this medium that the BCRA can accumulate reserves for the next two months, since “otherwise the IMF’s goal will be very difficult to meet and with it devaluation expectations will grow.”
It is worth mentioning that last week the Ministry of Economy reported that in the first quarter the fiscal deficit goal set forth in the extended facilities agreement with the multilateral credit organization was exceeded, although specialists warned that this would not have been achieved without a “gimmick ” in the way of accounting for income from debt issuance in pesos.
Likewise, the Government announced new bonds for the sectors most affected by the inflationary acceleration, whose financing is still uncertain.
official dollar
After validating the largest weekly devaluation since October 2020, the BCRA compensated for the inactivity on Saturday and Sunday in the foreign exchange market and allowed an adjustment of the wholesale dollar of 45 cents. Thus, the official price ended this Monday at $114.68.
The supply of foreign currency was positioned in a dominant way, attending to the authorized demand with fluidity, generating an excess that, as always, was absorbed by the Central Bank’s purchases.
In this framework, the exchange authority was able to end its intervention with a positive balance of US$40 million.s, for which the result for the month amounts to about US$215 million, a result that was expected to be higher at this time of year, when the income from the harvest usually helps the entity that Miguel Pesce currently directs.
“Beyond the trend of a higher rate of crawling-peg, the attention of operators is focused on the objective of accumulating reserves, especially in this second quarter of greater seasonality in the supply of foreign currency. The largest concerns, caused by the external climate together with the internal one, are reflected in the recent rebound of financial dollars that suddenly woke up,” said economist Gustavo Ber.
For its part, the retail dollar -without taxes- increased 20 cents to $119.89, according to the average in the main banks of the financial system. In turn, the retail value of the ticket at Banco Nación operates unchanged at $119.50.
The solidarity dollar -which includes 30% of the PAÍS tax and 35% deductible from profits- grows 33 cents to $197.82 on average.
The blue dollar scores its fifth consecutive rise this Monday, April 25 and plays its highest in eight weeks, according to a survey of Ámbito in the Black Market of Currencies.
Informal dollar rises $2 up to $205, after capping last week its biggest weekly rise in three months.
Thus, the gap with the wholesale exchange rate stands at 78.7%, the highest level so far in April.
Source: Ambito
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