However, in the last week both the blue and the financial dollars changed their trend again and the gap with the official moved away from 70% and is now at 85%.
On the one hand, this was expected considering that the acceleration of inflation puts pressure on the exchange rate in real terms, fueling expectations of devaluation. To this is added the uncertainty about meeting the goals with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and a level of accumulation of reserves lower than expected for this time of the year, crossed by the beginning of the thick harvest.
As if that were not enough, the international scene does not help. The war in Ukraine, the lockdowns in China and the rise in interest rates in the US favor investors’ aversion to risk, which strengthens the dollar against the rest of the world’s currencies.
Next, three specialists expressed in dialogue with Ámbito what is the trend they see for blue in the short term:
Christian Buteler, financial analyst
“For me, the blue dollar has a long way to go and should be above $230, according to the inflation we had, the amount of pesos in circulation, etc. But we also have the agreement with the IMF, the rate hike and a quarter of strong income of dollars, factors that calm the price”.
“Because the rebound was so quick, maybe we can see a couple of pesos cut, but the trend changed and it was bullish again. I think that will continue. If your vision is medium and long term, it is not bad to buy at these prices“.
Alfredo Romano, Director Romano Group
“It’s a very complex moment because outside the conditions are getting more and more difficult.”
“At the local level, if the government fails to approve the ‘unexpected income’ tax, there will be greater fiscal spending than that set with the IMF, and the market can read it as a new round of higher emissions to contain the social deterioration”.
“On the other hand, the BCRA’s dismal foreign exchange numbers in April are not encouraging since it has three months left to add reserves due to the liquidation of the heavy harvest.”
“This is not the time to sell dollars. I recommend waiting because you can follow the rise“.
Gustavo Ber, owner of Estudio Ber
The external panorama is complicated, since a “sell-off” is being activated and this is depreciating the emerging currencies. This, added to the difficult scenario at the local level, would explain the recent rise in dollars.
“If this situation is extended, it is possible that the search for coverage will deepen. In itself, the high nominal value of the economy pushes in the background the upward readjustment of the dollars, especially when the ‘carry-trade’ is being displaced in the current complex context”.
Source: Ambito
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