However, for those who best forecast this variable for the short term (TOP-10) inflation for 2022 will be even higher: it is estimated at 60.9% yoy (6.0 pp higher than the February survey).
For March 2022, the median of the current survey estimates stood at 5.5% monthlyheafter registering a variation of 4.7% in the month of February. ANDhe average of the TOP-10 of the best forecasters of inflation reached 5.4%.
Regarding the last survey, the expected inflation values for all the surveyed months were corrected upwards. Compared to March, the correction was 1.4 percentage points (pp). Changes of between 0.1 and 0.3 pp were recorded in the inflation forecasts for the following months compared to those of the previous survey.
The variations expected for the following months they converge towards a monthly 3.6% in the months of August and September.
Likewise, the participants of the REM revised the inflation forecasts for 2023, placing it at 47.5% yoy (2.5 pp more than the REM of February) and for 2024 up to 40.9% yoy (3.2 pp higher than the previous survey).
Regarding core inflation, those who participated in the REM forecast that it would reach 60.0% yoy at the end of 2022 (3.4 pp higher than the previous forecast).
Dollar
REM analysts slightly revised their monthly projections for the nominal exchange rate.
They predict that the wholesale dollar will reach $154 in December 2022. Those who most accurately forecast this variable with short-term horizons project that the average nominal exchange rate for the end of the year reached $152.78.
Besides, They estimated that the wholesale price of the US currency will be at $222 at the end of 2023.
GDP
Those who participate in the REM expect a growth of the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2022 of 3.2% (0.2 pp more than the previous REM). The TOP-10 of those who best forecast economic growth suggests an average increase in GDP for 2022 of 3.7% (0.2 pp higher than the previous survey).
As for the seasonally adjusted quarterly change in GDP, the estimate for the first quarter of 2022 corrected up to estimated rise of 0.6% se, which was 0.1 pp lower relative to the previous survey.
The growth estimate corresponding to the second quarter of 2022 fell by 0.1 pp to a contraction of 0.4%
Meanwhile, the REM participants project a slight expansion of 0.1% was in the first survey on the third quarter of 2022.
Interest rate
For April 2022, those who participate in the REM forecast a BADLAR rate for private banks of 42.76%, 2.22 pp higher than the average rate registered during the month of March (40.54%).
There is a correction to rise in projections converging to values between 44% and 44.5% between June and December.
Those who best forecast the interest rate for the short term forecast, on average, that it will be at 44.28% by the end of 2022.
Exports and imports
Regarding the value of exports (FOB), those who participate in the REM They estimate an amount for 2022 of US $ 82,611 million, increasing by US$4,423 million in relation to the last REM. The top 10 forecasters projected an export value equal to the survey as a whole.
Meanwhile, the value of the imports (CIF) of the year 2022 would be located at US $ 70,863 millionthat is US$4,491 million above the forecast of the previous survey. The members of the TOP-10 estimated an average value of annual imports per $71,910 millions.
unemployment
Besides, the projection provided by analysts for open unemployment was reduced. For the first quarter of 2022, the analysts’ forecast stood at 7.6% of the Economically Active Population (PEA), while a month ago they forecast 8.8%.
For the second quarter of 2022, the median forecast rose to 8%, for the third quarter of 2022 it remained at 8.0%, and it stood at 7.5% for the fourth quarter of 2022. Similarly, the members of the TOP-10 estimated the figure expected for the fourth quarter of 2022 at 7.5%.
Primary fiscal deficit
Finally, the projection of the nominal primary fiscal deficit of the National Non-Financial Public Sector (SPNF) made by the specialists for 2022 it increased with respect to the previous survey, being estimated at $1,920 thousand million.
The average of the 10 Most Accurate Tipsters during the past year for this variable indicates a projected deficit of $1.862 billion by 2022.
Likewise, analysts forecast a deficit of $2,240 billion for 2023, also higher than the previous survey.
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
