In turn, those who best forecast this variable for the short term (TOP-10) expect an average inflation rate of 65.7% year-on-year (4.8 pp higher than the March survey).
For the third month of 2022, the median of the estimates of those who participated in the previous REM survey suggested a monthly inflation of 5.5%, while the data observed in that month turned out to be 6.7%.
And for April 2022, the median of the current survey estimates was 5.6% per month, the same as the average of the TOP-10 of the best forecasters.
Likewise, the participants of the REM revised the forecasts of inflation for 2023 placing it at 50.5% yoy (3.1 pp more than the March REM) and for 2024 at 43.7% yoy (2.8 pp higher than the previous survey).
Regarding core inflation, those who participated in the REM forecast that it would reach 64.2% yoy at the end of 2022 (4.2 pp higher than the March survey).
Dollar
REM analysts slightly revised their monthly projections for the nominal exchange rate.
They forecast the wholesale dollar to reach $155 per dollar in December 2022, $1 more than last month. Is about an increase of 52.1% for the whole year.
Those who most accurately forecast this variable with short-term horizons project that the average nominal exchange rate by the end of December 2022 reach $152.57.
And they projected the wholesale dollar to stand at $226 by the end of 2023, up $4 from the end of March.
GDP
Those who participate in the REM expect a real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2022 of 3.5% (0.3 pp more than the previous REM). The TOP-10 of those who best forecast economic growth suggests on average a GDP increase for 2022 of 3.8% (0.1 pp higher than the previous survey).
Regarding the seasonally adjusted quarterly variation of the GDP, for the first quarter of 2022 a increase of 1.2% se, which is 0.6 pp higher in relation to the previous survey. The variation estimate corresponding to the second quarter of 2022 was reduced by 0.4 pp to a contraction of 0.8%
Meanwhile, the REM participants project a contraction of 0.5% se for the third quarter of 2022 (0.6 pp lower in relation to the previous survey).
Rate
Those who participated in the REM estimated in 45% the annual nominal interest rate (TNA) corresponding to fixed-term deposits of 30 to 35 days in private banks and of more than one million pesos (Badlar), compared to 43.27% in April.
A level of 45.80% is expected in December, 130 basis points higher than the forecast of the survey at the end of March.
Compared to the previous survey, there were upward corrections in the surveyed estimates which totaled between 113 and 165 basis points for all periods.
The report disclosed the results of the survey carried out between April 27 and 29, which included forecasts from 42 participants, including 28 consulting firms and local and international research centers and 14 financial entities from Argentina, reported the BCRA.
Source: Ambito
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