The rise has its explanation in some economic data of recent days, according to analysts and, although it is difficult to predict the future behavior of a market as volatile as the blue, some forecasts are risky until the end of the month.
As mentioned above, Gustavo Quintana, from PR Traders of Exchange, points out that “the rise was not that important”, but explains that the correction is always due to a combination of factors, there is not one that can justify it.
Quintana mentions in the first place that “the price index known last week was not encouraging.” Let us remember that on Thursday, May 12, the inflation data for April was released, which was 6%, somewhat below the 6.7% in March, but still at worrying levels.
In addition, he says that negative expectations are on the rise and that there may be “a little more pesos on the street and less supply” these days. Likewise, he clarifies that “in a small market like the blue dollar, the trend can change from one day to the next” and that is why he considers that it will be necessary to wait a few days to see what happens.
The economist at Epyca Consultora, Joel Lupieri, quoted by iProfesional, agrees that the inflation data has repercussions on the expectation of devaluation and assures in this sense that “a lack of commitment on the part of the state to clarify the course that the official dollar will follow , activates the demand for that currency as a store of value”.
Lupieri recalls that, in recent weeks, we have witnessed a dollar that has lateralized in the range of $199-$210 and believes that, “with the rise in prices, it seems that it will consolidate above $200”.
For his part, the economist Federico Glustein adds another element related to the rise in blue and that is that “the rise is correlated with specific market purchase factors with the possibility of carrying the MEP to $211 and the CCL to $212” .
For Glustein, it is likely that the blue dollar -except for some particular event- will begin to move in this way, rising slowly during the week so as not to be left behind by the solidarity dollar, but without sudden jumps. This is thanks to the fact that the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) is collecting foreign currency so far this month.
In fact, this Monday he pocketed US$110 million and has already bought US$650 million. Although it does so at a slow pace, the truth is that we are passing the time of year in which the liquidation of agricultural currency is accelerating, so the prospects may be encouraging in this regard.
For his part, Lupieri points out that “forecasting how the blue market for the US currency will continue is complex”, but he considers that it is expected that, as long as inflationary tensions continue, more investors will seek refuge in the US dollar.
However, in June there is a fact that could be relieving for the blue market towards the beginning of the month and it is the fact that companies usually need more pesos at that time of year for the half bonus. That could help calm the blue towards the beginning and middle of the month, although it could later turn against it if savers decide to dump that extraordinary annual income into the parallel market as a store of value.
All in all, Lupieri anticipates that “we will have to wait for the government to decide on the steps it will take in the fight against inflation” in order to anticipate with greater certainty what the course of the dollar may be in the different markets going forward.
In principle, the rate hike implemented last week could help take pesos out of the informal dollar market and be a downward factor, but the truth is that the market considers that the rate runs behind inflation and perhaps not it is tempting enough, but, on the other hand, it also plays into the fact that it should not be an isolated measure. If the rate is not raised in conjunction with other decisions that aim to control the rise in prices, it is difficult for the other variables to remain calm as well and the dollar is one more element of our economy.
Source: Ambito
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