“Inflation jumped to 58% in April, from 55.1% in March, marking the highest reading on record. The rally was broad based and was mainly driven by the fallout from the war between Russia and Ukraine. Inflation is expected to remain high this year, with high energy prices and the extension of global supply constraints, which pose an upward trend,” the report explains.
Some consultants went beyond the general coincidence and predicted that inflation in 2022 will be 70% or higher.
Below is the list
- Aurum Securities (70%);
- Ecolatin (70%);
- Econometric (73%);
- Empiria Consultants (71.7%);
- Balance (70%); FAITHFUL (82.5%);
- LCG (70.9%);
- OJF & Associates (71.1%).
Regarding the coming year, the consultants that forecast the highest inflation were Barclays Capital (60%); Balance (65%); LCG (65.9%); OJF & Associates (65.9%).
Meanwhile, the firms estimate that the peso will continue to depreciate. The projection is that the official price will reach $156.89 per dollar at the end of 2022 and $226.77 per dollar at the end of 2023.
The consultants that estimated a higher price of the official dollar (above $160) by the end of 2022 were: Analytica Consultora ($162.1); Econometric ($170); Ecosignal ($167.3); Economy ($164.4); FAITHFUL ($163.2); Itau Unibanco ($162); LCG ($172.9); MAP ($173.5); UBS ($165); VDC Consultant ($177.2).
For 2023, the highest forecasts are those of C&T Asesores ($267.1); EcoGo ($255.6); Ecosignal ($249.8); Economy ($251.6); Balance ($260); FAITHFUL ($254.6): Invecq Consulting ($248); LCG ($296.8); MAP ($260.2).
In addition, they indicated that inflation will be a key element to wait for a GDP growth by 2022 more moderate (2.8%) than forecast by the Government and the IMF.
Source: Ambito
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