The inflationary escalation that is hitting the economy, political tensions that overshadow the future of the government coalition and doubts about the fulfillment of the goals recently agreed with the International Monetary Fund for a debt of 44,000 million dollars, create an adverse climate for investors .
“The macroeconomic variables worry investors. The expansionary dynamics of public spending puts pressure on fiscal goals while inflation expectations do not give up,” said analysts at Portfolio Personal Investments (PPI).
The Government promised the IMF to increase the reserves of the Central Bank (BCRA), reduce inflation, lower the fiscal deficit and reduce subsidies, among other points. The agency carried out this month the first review of the quarterly goals whose completion has not yet been announced.
“The risk is to go to a ‘triple crown’ of breaches in the agreement (fiscal, monetary and reserve goals), where it will be necessary to see how much tolerance the IMF has and justifications are found to grant waivers (forgiveness)”commented Roberto Geretto, an economist at Funcorp.
In fixed income, The sovereign bonds in dollars are listed with the majority of increases, among which the 6.9% of the Global 2038 stands out, within the framework of a reduced and selective operation. Sovereign titles are coming off an average 2% rise last week.
Without operations in the US for the holiday, the country risk measured by the JP.Morgan it fell 0.6% on Friday to 1,916 basis points, with which it noted its first weekly fall in a month and a half (-1.8%).
“The country risk accumulates nine consecutive days above 1,900 points, and the breach of the agreement with the IMF seems imminent in the face of an accumulation of reserves that advances at an insufficient rate”, bounded from PPI.
“We also believe that it will be essential to closely monitor the international scenario and the impact it may have on the local market. Both the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the evolution of the US economy will be key factors that will determine the path to follow in the local market”, they added.
For their part, CER-adjusted securities in pesos move mostly in positive territory. The most outstanding raises are marked by the Quasipar (+0.6%); and DIP0 (+0.5%). Among the losses, meanwhile, appear Par (-1%); and the Discount (-0.8%).
The Treasury will carry out this Monday the second round of the tender for letters held on Friday, where you can add more financing to the 156,740 million effective pesos placed last Friday, in the last tender in May.
“Today the second round of this tender will take place, where they could raise a little more financing. Looking at the VNOs offered and awarded, it is also observed that not many bids were rejected, showing that there was not so much market interest in the tender,” they indicated. from the SBS Group.
Source: Ambito
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