Unlike what is happening in the international markets, the local market stocks were favored in May and, to the surprise of many, they are having a much stronger year than the Wall Street indices,” he says. Maximiliano Donzelli, Head of Research at IOL.
Turning to analyze the performance of Argentine assets, the best companies in the local market during this month were Macro Bank, which recorded an appreciation of 12.4% Pampa Energywith an increase of 11.8% and closes the podium Silver Trading Company, with a rise of 10.1%.
“The financial sector showed outstanding increases: in addition to Macro, Supervielle, BBVA, Galicia achieved increases of between 4.8% and 6.1%. Similar was the case of the electricity sector, although those related to gas lagged behind and even ended with some losses. YPF achieved a great improvement (+7.5%),” remarked a report from Tavelli.
Also added to the top ten of the main advances were several non-leading stocks from the general panel: Grimoldi (+12.7%); Central Costanera (+12.6%); Agro Mills (+10.9%); and Cellulose (+8.8%).
Among the losses of the month, agriculture and livestock stood out Cresud (-8.9%); Ternium Argentina (-3.5%); and Telecom (-3.1%).
On Wall Street, likewise, the ADRs of Argentine companies recorded the majority of increases in May. The top five was made up of Edenor (+10.9%); Tenaris (+10.5%); Pampa Energia (+10.2%); Macro Bank (+8.9%); and Central Port (+7.1%).
But there were also strong declines among Argentine papers linked to the technology sector, in line with the fall of the Nasdaq. The worst performances were led by Mercado Libre papers (-19.4%) -accumulated drop of 42% in the year-; Take off (-14.2%); and Globant (-12.3%). Cresud, for its part, sank 10.7%, but in 2022 it rises 48.5%, at the rate of rises in commodity prices.
Bonds in dollars and pesos
In the segment of fixed income in dollars, sovereign bonds fell again in May, in some specific cases registering falls of up to 6.1% (Global 2030). Those governed by Foreign Law lost an average of 3.5% and those appointed under Local Law lost 3%, in a complicated international context for emerging fixed income markets.
The combo of the Russian invasion, fears of a recession, and the Covid lockdowns in China have hit riskier emerging markets, generating capital movements towards higher quality bonds and markets, experts explain.
Regarding fixed income in pesos, despite having been a quiet month for financial dollars compared to April, May did not perform well for these assets overall.
The bonds that performed better in the month were those of variable rate, specifically those that adjust with the Badlar rate. “The National Bonus TB23P maturing in 2023, which pays Badlar+5.25%, charged interest at the beginning of the month for around 11% per 100 of capital, standing out, as well as the bond with the best performance in May”, highlighted Donzelli.
For what is to come, the specialists highlight the Badlar bonds for the increases that the interest rate has been showing as a result of inflation and the agreement with the IMF, which at some point could reach positive real levels. “We hope that the rate will continue to increase in the coming months, generating higher coupons for these bonds,” added the IOL specialist.
For their part, the CER bonds Y dollar-linked adjusted their prices with respect to their maturities, thus narrowing the rate spreads between the 2023 and 2024 instruments that had increased in April. This was particularly seen in CER bonds, where the TX23 adjusted 2.3% and the TX24 increased 2.9%. Likewise, observing the tenders for the month of May, the market continued to favor bonds with shorter maturities, prioritizing them before the start of the new presidential term in 2024.
Last day of the month
The S&P Merval index fell 1% Tuesday, in a day in which the shares of Argentine companies listed on Wall Street closed with a majority of negative positions.
In the Buenos Aires square, they also ended up with the majority of negative records, with the exception of Mirgor (11.6%); Ternium Argentina (2%); Central Port (1.3%); Edenor (1%); and Sociedad Comercial del Plata (0.6%).
On the other hand, the main falls of the wheel corresponded to Telecom Argentina (-4.9%); BBVA French Bank (-4.2%); Macro Bank (-3.7%); and Cresud (-3.1%).
The volume in shares jumped 265% to $1,316.2 million, representing 28% of the traded in equities. Thus, about the remaining 72% were operated on Cedears, whose daily amount jumped to $3,391.7 million.
On Wall Street, the papers of Argentine firms closed the day with a predominance of downward results. The only gains were recorded by IRSA Commercial Properties (5.9%); Edenor (5.2%); take off (2%); South Gas Carrier (1.1%); and Central Port (0.3%).
On the contrary, the losses were led by the papers of Telecom Argentina (-5.8%); Vista Energy (-5.3%); Cresud (-5.3%); Globant (-4.3%); Tenaris (-3.2%); YPF (-3.2%); and Free Market (-3.1%).
In the fixed income segment, bonds in dollars ended with falls of up to 3.2%, with the exception of Global 2046 (+1.5%) and Bonar 2029 (+0.5%).
For their part, securities in pesos with CER adjustment closed mixed, with gains of up to 0.6% and falls of up to 0.7%.
In this framework, the country risk fell 0.1% and closed at 1,914 basic points.
Source: Ambito
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