The S&P Merval index of Argentine Stock Exchanges and Markets (BYMA) it remained balanced around 92,305.58 points.
In May, “the Merval rose 3.8% in dollars and again beat the North American indices,” said the Research team at IOL investonline.
He added that “unlike what is happening in international markets, local market stocks were favored in May and, to the surprise of many, are having a much stronger year than Wall Street indices.”
In May, after a very negative April in the international markets, the rate of falls slowed considerably, and some Argentine stocks took advantage of it, since they achieved advances of up to 12.4% in the Buenos Aires stock market, although within a of marked selectivity. Bonds in dollars did not suffer the same fate, as they were punished again, and suffered drops of up to 6.1%, even reaching, towards the end of the month, minimum levels since the swap with private parties.
Unlike what is happening in the international markets, the local market stocks were favored in May and, to the surprise of many, they are having a much stronger year than the Wall Street indices,” he says. Maximiliano Donzelli, Head of Research at IOL.
Bonds in dollars and pesos
Sovereign bonds fell again in May, registering falls of up to 6.1% in some specific cases (Global 2030). Those governed by Foreign Law lost an average of 3.5% and those appointed under Local Law lost 3%, in a complicated international context for emerging fixed income markets.
The combo of the Russian invasion, fears of a recession, and the Covid lockdowns in China have hit riskier emerging markets, generating capital movements towards higher quality bonds and markets, experts explain.
Regarding fixed income in pesos, despite having been a quiet month for financial dollars compared to April, May did not have good returns for these assets in general terms.
The bonds that had the best performance in the month were those with a variable rate, specifically those that adjust with the Badlar rate. “The TB23P national bond maturing in 2023, which pays Badlar+5.25%, charged interest at the beginning of the month for around 11% per 100 of capital, standing out, as well as the bond with the best performance in May”, Donzelli stressed.
For what is to come, the specialists highlight the Badlar bonds for the increases that the interest rate has been showing as a result of inflation and the agreement with the IMF, which at some point could reach positive real levels. “We hope that the rate will continue to increase in the coming months, generating higher coupons for these bonds,” added the IOL specialist.
For their part, the CER and dollar-linked bonds adjusted their prices with respect to their maturities, thus shortening the rate spreads between the 2023 and 2024 instruments that had increased in April. This was particularly seen in CER bonds, where the TX23 adjusted 2.3% and the TX24 increased 2.9%. Likewise, observing the auctions of the month of May, the market continued to favor bonds with shorter maturities, prioritizing them before the start of the new presidential term in 2024.
Source: Ambito
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