For May 2022, meanwhile, the median of the current survey estimates was 5.2% per month, the same as the average of the TOP-10 of the best forecasters. Recall that for April 2022, the median of the estimates of those who participated in the previous REM survey suggested a monthly inflation of 5.6%, while the data observed in that month turned out to be 6%.
In addition, the REM participants reviewed the inflation forecasts for 2023 placing it at 60% yoy (9.5 pp more than the April REM) and for 2024 at 47.8% yoy (4.1 pp higher than the previous survey).
Regarding core inflation, they forecast that the same it would reach 72.8% yoy at the end of 2022 (8.6 pp higher than the last survey).
Dollar
REM analysts also revised upwards their monthly projections for the nominal exchange rate.
They expect the wholesale dollar to reach $157.97 per dollar in December 2022, compared to the $155 estimated in the previous survey. This is an increase of 53.9% for all of 2022, some 19 percentage points less than the estimated inflation for the same period.
Those who more accurately forecast this variable with short-term horizons project that the average nominal exchange rate for December 2022 will reach $155.45.
GDP
On the other hand, analysts expect a real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2022 of 3.3% (0.2 pp less compared to the previous REM). The TOP-10 of those who best forecast economic growth suggests an average increase in GDP by 2022 of 3.5% (0.3 pp lower than the April survey).
As for the seasonally adjusted quarterly change in GDP, for the first quarter of 2022, an increase of 0.9% was estimated, which is 0.3 pp lower in relation to the previous survey.
The estimate of variation corresponding to the second quarter of 2022 was corrected from -0.8% se to a contraction of 0.9% se
Meanwhile, the REM participants, a contraction of 0.4% is projected for the third quarter of 2022 (a contraction 0.1 pp lower in relation to the previous survey).
Source: Ambito
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