In a context of rising inflation expectations, CER-linked bonds had been performing strongly above virtually any other asset since September 2021, when they had been punished at the same time that the Cash with Liquidation (CCL) was triggered. This lasted until the end of March, when the BCRA increased the rate of devaluation towards the level of 60% annualized, revitalizing the Dollar-Linked bonds that had been lagging so far behind.
1. Common investment funds (FCI)
We believe that a good alternative to diversify the investment from the collection of the mid-year bonus is through the creation of a combined portfolio of mutual funds (FCIs).
We recommend that the portfolio be well diversified, with greater exposure in instruments that provide coverage for inflation, and a percentage also balanced between coverage for devaluation and accrual of rates. In this way, the investor can capture the highest potential return within the current macroeconomic environment.
2. Corporate bonds for different profiles
The bonds issued by companies to finance themselves in the capital market have been decoupled from sovereign titles, due to the fact that the operating and financial performance of the companies is very good. In other words, investors view the management of local companies very favorably, and furthermore, they currently have very low levels of debt.
For a conservative portfolio of short-term individuals, the bonds we recommend are Tecpetrol maturing in 2023, Pan American Energy maturing in 2027, and Vista Oil & Gas ONs (negotiable obligations) in dollars.
To complement a more aggressive instrument, investors can also opt for the YPF bond that matures in 2024. The minimum amount is US$1,000.
After two months of gains between February and March, Argentine stocks have been experiencing a downward correction since April, and we believe that at the local level, expectations are not encouraging for the rest of the year, although company valuations are at historically low.
Although the stocks could have a slight improvement with a more favorable external context, Argentina is involved in its own dynamics, for which we believe that not only a benign political scenario is needed, but also an economic recovery, and above all, a recovery of confidence to reduce the country risk, and that all this enables a sustained rise in prices over time.
For this reason, we believe that it is better to bet on Cedears of ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) in the local market, dollarizing the savings and, in turn, diversifying risks, with a recommended minimum initial capital of between 5,000 and 10,000 pesos.
Fears about inflation, then about the war and now about global growth have impacted the US market, where the reference indicator S&P 500 accumulates a fall of around 20% since its maximum on January 4. However, the stock market always pays back, and historically, for those who can afford to invest, indices are the best way to capture long-term returns.
We would opt for the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY AR), a portfolio that represents the 500 stocks that make up the S&P 500 index and pays quarterly dividends.
On the other hand, an instrument that offers a refuge against global inflation is the ETF Energy Select Sector (XLE AR), formed by US companies with high market capitalization that develop and produce crude oil and natural gas, or provide services to companies of these industries.
Alternatively, the US banking sector could have a better relative performance than other sectors due to the context of rising interest rates. The Financial Sector Select (XLF AR), which contains financial services firms whose businesses range from investment management to commercial banking or investment banking, can also be an excellent investment option.
4. Cedears
But with a long-term view, some Cedears from US individual companies are at attractive entry prices. One of these companies is Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange platform in the world, with more than 90 million accounts.
Its shares have slumped for a combination of reasons, including price declines in the crypto sector, as well as posting results reflecting that they are investing in growth and temporarily sacrificing some of the gains, adding to the big drop in the Nasdaq technology index.
However, for a long-term investor who can stop looking at this stock for 3 years, Coinbase is a highly recommended company.
Another option recommended by Adcap Grupo Financiero is the case of Snapchat, which is valued at 3 times sales, and we believe that this price is ridiculously cheap. In the long term, it is a profitable company with a lot of potential.
Finally, Amazon is much more than a retail giant; it is a conglomerate with many technological advantages, such as Amazon Web Services, it develops its own artificial intelligence algorithms and has special semiconductors, for example. It is a company in which it is time to enter.
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
